TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Arsenii Lobanov vs Oleksandr Tymofeev 0-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
6111012511––––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:27 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Tymofeev to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingArsenii Lobanov above · Oleksandr Tymofeev below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 5-11
Point 55 set 3, 5-11 · our read held Oleksandr Tymofeev at 54.0%
55 points played in total.
H2H Arsenii Lobanov 0–3 Oleksandr Tymofeev Arsenii Lobanov has won 0 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 07:2754.0%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.9pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Tymofeev
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
0-3 in 3
Tymofeev
Correct
gap of 3 in 3, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lobanov 1581 vs Tymofeev 1627
Tymofeev
Correct
both rated, 46 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lobanov 20% vs Tymofeev 60%
Tymofeev
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lobanov 30% vs Tymofeev 60%
Tymofeev
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Lobanov -4 · Tymofeev +1
Lobanov
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Tymofeev) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lobanov form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLobanov 2.00 / Tymofeev 1.727
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Tymofeev)-3.9pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13234309
Lobanov2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Tymofeev1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite74% won 90 of 122
Up 2–0, closes it90% 45 of 50
Up 1–0, closes it89% 67 of 75
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeLobanov0wins
AwayTymofeev3wins
1 of 3 to a deciderTymofeev leads 3–0, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lobanov1Tymofeev2n = 3Tymofeev took 2 of 3
S2Lobanov1Tymofeev2n = 3Tymofeev took 2 of 3
S3Lobanov1Tymofeev2n = 3Tymofeev took 2 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away133%
1–3Four sets, away133%
0–3Straight, away133%
These 3 meetings
MetricLobanovTymofeevL − TBasisWins03−3in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match34.042.7−8.7per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLobanovTymofeevBasisWin rate · lifetime64 / 126 vs 287 / 53650.8%53.5%64 / 126 vs 287 / 536Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.637.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
TymofeevLobanov 2.00/Tymofeev 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Tymofeev · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Tymofeev won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LOct 3 · 07:30A. Lobanov2161050O. Tymofeev341112113
LJul 25 · 12:05A. Lobanov4571112692O. Tymofeev501171011113
LJun 13 · 08:05A. Lobanov361175131O. Tymofeev4471111153
A. Lobanov10
LOct 3 · 06:00A. Lobanov1.80101880V. Kryvenko1.911220113LOct 3 · 04:30A. Lobanov1.6171111962Y. Kovshun2.20113811113LAug 23 · 11:30A. Droshchynskyi1.83117411113A. Lobanov1.8371111722LAug 23 · 10:00A. Lobanov1.91115111152Y. Holoborodko1.80411313113WAug 23 · 08:00Y. Kovshun2.2071351132A. Lobanov1.611111112113WAug 23 · 06:00O. Varlamov2.507590A. Lobanov1.501111113LAug 23 · 05:00Y. Bondarenko2.75101211113A. Lobanov1.401210741LAug 20 · 10:30A. Obishchenko1.57127119123A. Lobanov2.251011811102WAug 20 · 09:30A. Lobanov1.40127211113A. Troyan2.75101111932LAug 20 · 08:30A. Lobanov1.50111116592Y. Volkov2.50691811113
O. Tymofeev10
WOct 3 · 06:30O. Tymofeev2.38817138113Y. Kovshun1.531115111192LOct 3 · 05:30V. Bilobrov1.301111113O. Tymofeev3.409560WOct 1 · 09:29O. Tymofeev2.25741111113S. Hryhorenko1.5711118872LOct 1 · 08:00S. Hryhorenko1.7311511113O. Tymofeev2.00511791WOct 1 · 07:00O. Tymofeev2.38711513113Y. Kovshun1.53114111142LOct 1 · 06:00Y. Volkov1.801110118113O. Tymofeev1.9181281192WOct 1 · 05:00O. Tymofeev2.10411115133A. Troyan1.67119211112WSep 27 · 10:48D. Patalakha3.40811111142O. Tymofeev1.30111337113WSep 27 · 09:50O. Tymofeev1.30114115113D. Patalakha3.4091151142LSep 27 · 08:50S. Solomko2.751111183O. Tymofeev1.4044160
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