TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleksandr Tymofeev vs Yaroslav Kovshun 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
81117151311811119
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:26 and never touched: 61.2% is still 61.2%
Graded at full timeYaroslav Kovshun to win
61.2%
61.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOleksandr Tymofeev above · Yaroslav Kovshun below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 17-15
Set 3 · 13-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 114 set 5, 11-9 · our read held Yaroslav Kovshun at 61.2%
114 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Tymofeev 24–38 Yaroslav Kovshun Oleksandr Tymofeev has won 24 of their 62 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:2661.2%Our read65.2%to break even at 1.533
short by 4.0pp65.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.533 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Kovshun
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
24-38 in 62
Kovshun
Wrong
gap of 14 in 62, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tymofeev 1614 vs Kovshun 1649
Kovshun
Wrong
both rated, 35 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tymofeev 40% vs Kovshun 60%
Kovshun
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tymofeev 60% vs Kovshun 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Tymofeev -1 · Kovshun +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% · Slight lean (leans Kovshun) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTymofeev 2.375 / Kovshun 1.533
Signal prob.39% / 61%
Edge (Kovshun)-4.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13234318
Tymofeev2.38
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog38% won 36 of 95
Down 0–1, comes back28% 15 of 54
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 29
Kovshun1.53
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite60% won 110 of 183
Up 2–0, closes it93% 49 of 53
Up 1–0, closes it79% 76 of 96
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTymofeev2wins
AwayKovshun8wins
3 of 10 to a deciderKovshun leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTymofeev0%0 of 3
AwayKovshun71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tymofeev3Kovshun7n = 10Kovshun took 7 of 10
S2Tymofeev3Kovshun7n = 10Kovshun took 7 of 10
S3Tymofeev2Kovshun8n = 10Kovshun took 8 of 10
S4Tymofeev1Kovshun5n = 6Kovshun took 5 of 6
S5Tymofeev2Kovshun1n = 3Tymofeev took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricTymofeevKovshunT − KBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match35.040.5−5.5per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTymofeevKovshunBasisWin rate · lifetime286 / 535 vs 342 / 64053.5%53.4%286 / 535 vs 342 / 640Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.438.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KovshunTymofeev 2.38/Kovshun 1.53
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
61.2%
Kovshun · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Tymofeev won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 3 · 06:30O. Tymofeev57817138113Y. Kovshun571115111192
WOct 1 · 07:00O. Tymofeev47711513113Y. Kovshun41114111142
LJul 25 · 10:05O. Tymofeev401199111Y. Kovshun4491111133
LJul 11 · 07:05O. Tymofeev361091161Y. Kovshun3612112113
LJun 20 · 09:35O. Tymofeev184770Y. Kovshun331111113
LJun 7 · 10:05O. Tymofeev194960Y. Kovshun331111113
LMay 31 · 07:35O. Tymofeev33119851Y. Kovshun3961111113
LMay 23 · 09:35O. Tymofeev4511116982Y. Kovshun49881111113
LNov 21 · 19:20O. Tymofeev214890Y. Kovshun331111113
LOct 24 · 21:20O. Tymofeev34141190Y. Kovshun401613113
O. Tymofeev10
WOct 3 · 07:30A. Lobanov2.0061050O. Tymofeev1.731112113LOct 3 · 05:30V. Bilobrov1.301111113O. Tymofeev3.409560WOct 1 · 09:29O. Tymofeev2.25741111113S. Hryhorenko1.5711118872LOct 1 · 08:00S. Hryhorenko1.7311511113O. Tymofeev2.00511791WOct 1 · 07:00O. Tymofeev2.38711513113Y. Kovshun1.53114111142LOct 1 · 06:00Y. Volkov1.801110118113O. Tymofeev1.9181281192WOct 1 · 05:00O. Tymofeev2.10411115133A. Troyan1.67119211112WSep 27 · 10:48D. Patalakha3.40811111142O. Tymofeev1.30111337113WSep 27 · 09:50O. Tymofeev1.30114115113D. Patalakha3.4091151142LSep 27 · 08:50S. Solomko2.751111183O. Tymofeev1.4044160
Y. Kovshun10
WOct 3 · 04:30A. Lobanov1.6171111962Y. Kovshun2.20113811113LOct 2 · 09:43A. Troyan1.91117136113Y. Kovshun1.80811111172WOct 2 · 08:30Y. Kovshun1.501211118113A. Troyan2.5014681172WOct 2 · 07:30O. Karpenko2.10291191Y. Kovshun1.6711119113LOct 2 · 06:30Y. Volkov1.801111113Y. Kovshun1.915870WOct 2 · 05:00V. Kolesnykov2.6391161182Y. Kovshun1.44116119113WOct 1 · 09:59Y. Kovshun1.802111111113Y. Volkov1.9111391382LOct 1 · 08:30A. Troyan2.631112113Y. Kovshun1.4451090LOct 1 · 07:00O. Tymofeev2.38711513113Y. Kovshun1.53114111142WOct 1 · 05:30S. Hryhorenko2.509136101Y. Kovshun1.50111111123
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