TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Jiri Motak vs Jiri Foltynek 3-2 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 2Finished
Jiri Motak
Home
1.67
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
51111814161210117
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:29 and never touched: 56.2% is still 56.2%
Graded at full timeJiri Motak to win
56.2%
56.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingJiri Motak above · Jiri Foltynek below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 14-16
Set 4 · 12-10
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 105 set 5, 11-7 · our read held Jiri Motak at 56.2%
105 points played in total.
H2H Jiri Motak 29–21 Jiri Foltynek Jiri Foltynek has won 21 of their 50 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:2956.2%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 3.8pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Motak
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
29-21 in 50
Motak
Correct
gap of 8 in 50, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Motak 988 vs Foltynek 1120
Foltynek
Wrong
both rated, 132 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Motak 20% vs Foltynek 60%
Foltynek
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Motak 10% vs Foltynek 40%
Foltynek
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Motak -3 · Foltynek +1
Motak
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% · Slight lean (leans Motak) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Foltynek form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMotak 1.666 / Foltynek 2.10
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Motak)-3.8pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13228853
Motak1.67
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite47% won 8 of 17
Up 1–0, closes it70% 7 of 10
Foltynek2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog51% won 20 of 39
Down 0–1, comes back33% 9 of 27
Down 0–2, comes back18% 3 of 17
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMotak5wins
AwayFoltynek5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMotak57.1%4 of 7
AwayFoltynek66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Motak7Foltynek3n = 10Motak took 7 of 10
S2Motak4Foltynek6n = 10Foltynek took 6 of 10
S3Motak7Foltynek3n = 10Motak took 7 of 10
S4Motak5Foltynek4n = 9Motak took 5 of 9
S5Motak1Foltynek4n = 5Foltynek took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMotakFoltynekM − FBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match42.841.6+1.2per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMotakFoltynekBasisWin rate · lifetime47 / 128 vs 55 / 13336.7%41.4%47 / 128 vs 55 / 133Avg sets wonper match1.61.9per matchAvg pointsper match34.337.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MotakMotak 1.67/Foltynek 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.2%
Motak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Motak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 1 · 11:00J. Motak521211108113J. Foltynek47105121192
LJul 20 · 11:30J. Motak47139114102J. Foltynek501111511123
LJun 30 · 11:00J. Motak341110851J. Foltynek4061211113
WJun 17 · 13:00J. Motak4011711113J. Foltynek33911761
WJun 17 · 12:30J. Motak43111011113J. Foltynek36812791
LJun 11 · 12:30J. Motak4571212952J. Foltynek5311101011113
LMay 31 · 15:30J. Motak481151111102J. Foltynek52131188123
LMay 12 · 11:30J. Motak4611781192J. Foltynek47511119113
WMar 31 · 16:30J. Motak3961111113J. Foltynek36118891
WMar 10 · 18:12J. Motak341111123J. Foltynek2275100
J. Motak10
WOct 2 · 12:30L. Martinec1.4012880J. Motak2.751411113LOct 2 · 10:30V. Matysek1.281111113J. Motak3.504230LSep 1 · 12:58L. Martinec1.44511711113J. Motak2.6311711592LSep 1 · 12:00L. Martinec1.2812131113113J. Motak3.50141541192WSep 1 · 11:00J. Foltynek2.10105121192J. Motak1.671211108113LSep 1 · 10:30J. Motak2.257970V. Matysek1.571111113LJul 20 · 12:58L. Martinec1.2811511123J. Motak3.506116101LJul 20 · 12:30L. Martinec1.401111113J. Motak2.756540LJul 20 · 11:30J. Motak1.61139114102J. Foltynek2.201111511123LJul 20 · 10:30M. Derco1.671111113J. Motak2.103520
J. Foltynek10
WOct 2 · 12:00J. Foltynek1.571112113V. Matysek2.2521050WOct 2 · 10:00J. Foltynek1.611111113L. Martinec2.207360LSep 1 · 13:30J. Foltynek1.3061110121V. Matysek3.4011712143WSep 1 · 12:30J. Foltynek1.331111113V. Matysek3.256860LSep 1 · 11:00J. Foltynek2.10105121192J. Motak1.671211108113WSep 1 · 10:00L. Martinec2.2011861172J. Foltynek1.61511118113LAug 26 · 16:58I. Palmi1.531111113J. Foltynek2.383470LAug 26 · 16:30J. Foltynek2.105111191I. Palmi1.6711913113LAug 26 · 15:00J. Foltynek1.83711751A. Kanak1.8311811113WJul 20 · 11:30J. Motak1.61139114102J. Foltynek2.201111511123
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