Michal Derco vs Jiri Motak 3-0

TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro

Czech Liga ProMatch #12264850

Played Jul 20Finished

Michal Derco

Home

1.67

At publish

Won last 1

Form at publish

3–7Last 10Won last 1

Final

3 – 0

Set by set

113115112––––

Jiri Motak

Away

2.10

At publish

Lost last 5

Form at publish

3–7Last 10Lost last 5

How it is goingMichal Derco above · Jiri Motak below

Set 1 · 11-3

Set 2 · 11-5

Set 3 · 11-2

Point 43 set 3, 11-2

43 points played in total.

H2H Michal Derco 7–4 Jiri Motak Jiri Motak has won 4 of their 11 meetings.

Last 10 · 6–4Same sideHead to head

Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Derco)

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Motak form (0%) is below what odds imply (48%)

Market vs Signals

Market oddsDerco 1.67 / Motak 2.10

Signal prob.57% / 43%

Edge (Derco)+1.0pp

Czech Liga Pro · #12264850

Derco1.67

30%won 3 of 10 · last 10

oldest → newest

40%takes the first set · 4 of 10

As favourite54% won 14 of 26

Up 2–0, closes it90% 9 of 10

Up 1–0, closes it85% 11 of 13

Motak2.10

30%won 3 of 10 · last 10

Lost last 5

oldest → newest

50%takes the first set · 5 of 10

As underdog33% won 11 of 33

Down 0–1, comes back6% 1 of 17

Down 0–2, comes back7% 1 of 15

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 10 meetings

HomeDerco6wins

AwayMotak4wins

2 of 10 to a deciderDerco leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeDerco83.3%5 of 6

AwayMotak75%3 of 4

Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Derco6Motak4n = 10Derco took 6 of 10

S2Derco8Motak2n = 10Derco took 8 of 10

S3Derco4Motak6n = 10Motak took 6 of 10

S4Derco3Motak4n = 7Motak took 4 of 7

Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate

How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home220%

3–1Four sets, home330%

3–2Decider, home110%

2–3Decider, away110%

1–3Four sets, away220%

0–3Straight, away110%

These 10 meetings

MetricDercoMotakD − MBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match39.134.5+4.6per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricDercoMotakBasisWin rate · lifetime28 / 64 vs 49 / 13943.8%35.3%28 / 64 vs 49 / 139Avg sets wonper match1.91.6per matchAvg pointsper match38.134.0per match

Deep Dive by Market

Each market builds on the overview above

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction

Match Winner

Derco

Derco 1.67/Motak 2.10

Read onlywould have hit

What we said

56.8%

Derco · sealed before the serve

What happened

3–0

Derco won

Recent Results

H2H · no odds on record10

LJun 11 · 10:30M. Derco—8640J. Motak—1111113

WMay 1 · 13:00M. Derco—1117113J. Motak—51570

LMay 1 · 12:00M. Derco—111196112J. Motak—951111133

WApr 14 · 10:30M. Derco—1111113J. Motak—6980

LMar 31 · 15:00M. Derco—815581J. Motak—111311113

WMar 29 · 20:30M. Derco—81111143J. Motak—1164121

WMar 20 · 13:58M. Derco—111111113J. Motak—391361

WMar 20 · 13:30M. Derco—11911113J. Motak—611461

WFeb 24 · 10:30M. Derco—111179113J. Motak—42111172

LFeb 24 · 09:00M. Derco—9111081J. Motak—11712113

M. Derco10

WAug 20 · 21:14M. Derco2.0281111113T. Navrat1.70118461 LAug 20 · 20:30M. Derco2.63111191342M. Blaha1.44881115113 LAug 20 · 19:00M. Derco1.83118121192T. Navrat1.831311106113 WAug 20 · 18:00V. Rybar2.00118761M. Derco1.7381111113 WAug 16 · 08:58D. Vavrecka2.00741161M. Derco1.7311119113 WAug 16 · 08:30M. Derco1.6711116123D. Vavrecka2.108711101 LAug 16 · 07:00M. Derco2.631281121M. Blaha1.4414118113 LAug 16 · 06:00P. Banot1.611111113M. Derco2.209380 WAug 10 · 12:58M. Derco2.3891111143D. Vavrecka1.531134121 LAug 10 · 12:00P. Banot1.8311611113M. Derco1.83911421

J. Motak10

LSep 1 · 12:58L. Martinec1.44511711113J. Motak2.6311711592 LSep 1 · 12:00L. Martinec1.2812131113113J. Motak3.50141541192 WSep 1 · 11:00J. Foltynek2.10105121192J. Motak1.671211108113 LSep 1 · 10:30J. Motak2.257970V. Matysek1.571111113 LJul 20 · 12:58L. Martinec1.2811511123J. Motak3.506116101 LJul 20 · 12:30L. Martinec1.401111113J. Motak2.756540 LJul 20 · 11:30J. Motak1.61139114102J. Foltynek2.201111511123 LJun 30 · 13:00L. Martinec1.401111113J. Motak2.758660 LJun 30 · 12:30J. Motak1.8091280L. Martinec1.911114113 LJun 30 · 11:00J. Motak1.571110851J. Foltynek2.2561211113

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