TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Lukas Martinec vs Jiri Motak 0-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 2Finished
Lukas Martinec
Home
1.40
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
1214811811––––
Jiri Motak
Away
2.75
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:29 and never touched: 67.9% is still 67.9%
Graded at full timeLukas Martinec to win
67.9%
67.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingLukas Martinec above · Jiri Motak below
Set 1 · 12-14
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 64 set 3, 8-11 · our read held Lukas Martinec at 67.9%
64 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Martinec 12–3 Jiri Motak Jiri Motak has won 3 of their 15 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:2967.9%Our read71.4%to break even at 1.40
short by 3.5pp71.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.40 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Martinec
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
12-3 in 15
Martinec
Wrong
gap of 9 in 15, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Martinec 1043 vs Motak 1002
Martinec
Wrong
both rated, 40 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Martinec 40% vs Motak 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Martinec 40% vs Motak 20%
Martinec
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Martinec -2 · Motak +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% · Clear lean (leans Martinec) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Martinec form (40%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMartinec 1.40 / Motak 2.75
Signal prob.68% / 32%
Edge (Martinec)-3.5pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13228126
Martinec1.40
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite63% won 10 of 16
Up 2–0, closes it100% 7 of 7
Up 1–0, closes it100% 8 of 8
Motak2.75
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog26% won 7 of 27
Down 0–1, comes back6% 1 of 17
Down 0–2, comes back7% 1 of 15
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMartinec8wins
AwayMotak2wins
2 of 10 to a deciderMartinec leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMartinec100%6 of 6
AwayMotak50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Martinec6Motak4n = 10Martinec took 6 of 10
S2Martinec6Motak4n = 10Martinec took 6 of 10
S3Martinec6Motak4n = 10Martinec took 6 of 10
S4Martinec4Motak0n = 4Martinec took 4 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMartinecMotakMartinec − MotakBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match35.631.1+4.5per matchSweeps42+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMartinecMotakBasisWin rate · lifetime16 / 46 vs 48 / 12934.8%37.2%16 / 46 vs 48 / 129Avg sets wonper match1.61.7per matchAvg pointsper match35.534.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MartinecMartinec 1.40/Motak 2.75
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
67.9%
Martinec · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Motak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 1 · 12:58L. Martinec45511711113J. Motak4311711592
WSep 1 · 12:00L. Martinec6012131113113J. Motak53141541192
WJul 20 · 12:58L. Martinec3911511123J. Motak336116101
WJul 20 · 12:30L. Martinec331111113J. Motak156540
WJun 30 · 13:00L. Martinec331111113J. Motak208660
WJun 30 · 12:30L. Martinec361114113J. Motak2991280
LMay 12 · 12:59L. Martinec218760J. Motak331111113
WMay 12 · 10:00L. Martinec331111113J. Motak226880
LMay 5 · 12:59L. Martinec172690J. Motak331111113
WMay 5 · 12:30L. Martinec3911116113J. Motak30771151
L. Martinec10
WOct 2 · 12:58J. Motak1.61611981L. Martinec2.2011811113LOct 2 · 11:00L. Martinec2.387141011142V. Matysek1.531112126163LOct 2 · 10:00J. Foltynek1.611111113L. Martinec2.207360WSep 1 · 12:58L. Martinec1.44511711113J. Motak2.6311711592WSep 1 · 12:00L. Martinec1.2812131113113J. Motak3.50141541192LSep 1 · 11:30V. Matysek2.101111123L. Martinec1.6728100LSep 1 · 10:00L. Martinec2.2011861172J. Foltynek1.61511118113WJul 20 · 12:58L. Martinec1.2811511123J. Motak3.506116101WJul 20 · 12:30L. Martinec1.401111113J. Motak2.756540LJul 20 · 11:00L. Martinec2.75126612122M. Derco1.4010111110143
J. Motak10
LOct 2 · 12:58J. Motak1.61611981L. Martinec2.2011811113WOct 2 · 11:30J. Motak1.675111412113J. Foltynek2.10118161072LOct 2 · 10:30V. Matysek1.281111113J. Motak3.504230LSep 1 · 12:58L. Martinec1.44511711113J. Motak2.6311711592LSep 1 · 12:00L. Martinec1.2812131113113J. Motak3.50141541192WSep 1 · 11:00J. Foltynek2.10105121192J. Motak1.671211108113LSep 1 · 10:30J. Motak2.257970V. Matysek1.571111113LJul 20 · 12:58L. Martinec1.2811511123J. Motak3.506116101LJul 20 · 12:30L. Martinec1.401111113J. Motak2.756540LJul 20 · 11:30J. Motak1.61139114102J. Foltynek2.201111511123
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