Lukas Martinec vs Michal Derco 2-3

TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro

Czech Liga ProMatch #12265776

Played Jul 20Finished

Lukas Martinec

Home

2.75

At publish

Lost last 1

Form at publish

3–7Last 10Lost last 1

Final

2 – 3

Set by set

121061161112101214

Michal Derco

Away

1.40

At publish

Won last 2

Form at publish

4–6Last 10Won last 2

How it is goingLukas Martinec above · Michal Derco below

Set 1 · 12-10

Set 2 · 6-11

Set 3 · 6-11

Set 4 · 12-10

Set 5 · 12-14

Point 104 set 5, 12-14

104 points played in total.

H2H Lukas Martinec 1–3 Michal Derco Lukas Martinec has won 1 of their 4 meetings.

Last 4 · 1–3Same sideHead to head

Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Derco)

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Derco form (40%) is below what odds imply (71%)

Market vs Signals

Market oddsMartinec 2.75 / Derco 1.40

Signal prob.34% / 66%

Edge (Derco)+0.0pp

Czech Liga Pro · #12265776

Martinec2.75

30%won 3 of 10 · last 10

oldest → newest

30%takes the first set · 3 of 10

As underdog15% won 2 of 13

Down 0–1, comes back0% 0 of 9

Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 7

Derco1.40

40%won 4 of 10 · last 10

Won last 2

oldest → newest

50%takes the first set · 5 of 10

As favourite54% won 14 of 26

Up 2–0, closes it90% 9 of 10

Up 1–0, closes it85% 11 of 13

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 4 meetings

HomeMartinec1wins

AwayDerco3wins

2 of 4 to a deciderDerco leads 3–1, and 2 of those 4 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

Not enough first sets

Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.

Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Martinec2Derco2n = 4split evenly

S2Martinec1Derco3n = 4Derco took 3 of 4

S3Martinec0Derco4n = 4Derco took 4 of 4

S4Martinec2Derco1n = 3Martinec took 2 of 3

Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate

How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home00%

3–1Four sets, home00%

3–2Decider, home125%

2–3Decider, away125%

1–3Four sets, away125%

0–3Straight, away125%

These 4 meetings

MetricMartinecDercoM − DBasisWins13−2in 4 meetingsFirst set220of 4Avg pointsper match37.243.5−6.3per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricMartinecDercoBasisWin rate · lifetime13 / 46 vs 30 / 6628.3%45.5%13 / 46 vs 30 / 66Avg sets wonper match1.42.0per matchAvg pointsper match32.838.3per match

Deep Dive by Market

Each market builds on the overview above

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction

Match Winner

Derco

Martinec 2.75/Derco 1.40

Read onlywould have hit

What we said

66.3%

Derco · sealed before the serve

What happened

2–3

Derco won

Recent Results

H2H · no odds on record4

LJul 20 · 11:00L. Martinec—126612122M. Derco—10111110143

LMay 1 · 10:00L. Martinec—119791M. Derco—61111113

LApr 14 · 12:00L. Martinec—6850M. Derco—1111113

WMar 31 · 16:00L. Martinec—511811113M. Derco—11711892

L. Martinec10

WSep 1 · 12:58L. Martinec1.44511711113J. Motak2.6311711592 WSep 1 · 12:00L. Martinec1.2812131113113J. Motak3.50141541192 LSep 1 · 11:30V. Matysek2.101111123L. Martinec1.6728100 LSep 1 · 10:00L. Martinec2.2011861172J. Foltynek1.61511118113 WJul 20 · 12:58L. Martinec1.2811511123J. Motak3.506116101 WJul 20 · 12:30L. Martinec1.401111113J. Motak2.756540 LJul 20 · 10:00J. Foltynek1.53118411113L. Martinec2.3871111562 WJun 30 · 13:00L. Martinec1.401111113J. Motak2.758660 WJun 30 · 12:30J. Motak1.8091280L. Martinec1.911114113 LJun 30 · 11:30L. Martinec2.751051191I. Palmi1.4012116113

M. Derco10

WAug 20 · 21:14M. Derco2.0281111113T. Navrat1.70118461 LAug 20 · 20:30M. Derco2.63111191342M. Blaha1.44881115113 LAug 20 · 19:00M. Derco1.83118121192T. Navrat1.831311106113 WAug 20 · 18:00V. Rybar2.00118761M. Derco1.7381111113 WAug 16 · 08:58D. Vavrecka2.00741161M. Derco1.7311119113 WAug 16 · 08:30M. Derco1.6711116123D. Vavrecka2.108711101 LAug 16 · 07:00M. Derco2.631281121M. Blaha1.4414118113 LAug 16 · 06:00P. Banot1.611111113M. Derco2.209380 WAug 10 · 12:58M. Derco2.3891111143D. Vavrecka1.531134121 LAug 10 · 12:00P. Banot1.8311611113M. Derco1.83911421

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