TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Jiri Foltynek vs Lukas Martinec 3-0 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
117113116––––
Lukas Martinec
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:43 and never touched: 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timeJiri Foltynek to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingJiri Foltynek above · Lukas Martinec below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 11-6
Point 49 set 3, 11-6 · our read held Jiri Foltynek at 58.9%
49 points played in total.
H2H Jiri Foltynek 6–0 Lukas Martinec Lukas Martinec has won 0 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:4358.9%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 3.0pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Foltynek
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
6-0 in 6
Foltynek
Correct
gap of 6 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Foltynek 1120 vs Martinec 1051
Foltynek
Correct
both rated, 69 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Foltynek 40% vs Martinec 60%
Martinec
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Foltynek 40% vs Martinec 60%
Martinec
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Foltynek -1 · Martinec +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% · Slight lean (leans Foltynek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Martinec form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFoltynek 1.615 / Martinec 2.20
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Foltynek)-3.0pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13228058
Foltynek1.61
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 31 days ago (Sep 01) · back after a break
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Martinec2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 31 days ago (Sep 01) · back after a break
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog14% won 2 of 14
Down 0–1, comes back0% 0 of 8
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 5
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeFoltynek6wins
AwayMartinec0wins
3 of 6 to a deciderFoltynek leads 6–0, and 3 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeFoltynek100%5 of 5
AwayMartinecn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Foltynek5Martinec1n = 6Foltynek took 5 of 6
S2Foltynek3Martinec3n = 6split evenly
S3Foltynek5Martinec1n = 6Foltynek took 5 of 6
S4Foltynek2Martinec2n = 4split evenly
S5Foltynek3Martinec0n = 3Foltynek took 3 of 3
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home233%
3–1Four sets, home117%
3–2Decider, home350%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricFoltynekMartinecF − MBasisWins60+6in 6 meetingsFirst set51+4of 6Avg pointsper match43.735.8+7.9per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFoltynekMartinecBasisWin rate · lifetime55 / 133 vs 16 / 4541.4%35.6%55 / 133 vs 16 / 45Avg sets wonper match1.91.6per matchAvg pointsper match37.135.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
FoltynekFoltynek 1.61/Martinec 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.9%
Foltynek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Foltynek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WOct 2 · 10:00J. Foltynek331111113L. Martinec167360
WSep 1 · 10:00J. Foltynek46511118113L. Martinec4311861172
WJul 20 · 10:00J. Foltynek45118411113L. Martinec4071111562
WJun 30 · 10:30J. Foltynek391513113L. Martinec30131160
WMay 12 · 12:30J. Foltynek4815811143L. Martinec4113115121
WMar 31 · 15:30J. Foltynek511161310113L. Martinec45411111272
J. Foltynek10
LSep 1 · 13:30J. Foltynek1.3061110121V. Matysek3.4011712143WSep 1 · 12:30J. Foltynek1.331111113V. Matysek3.256860LSep 1 · 11:00J. Foltynek2.10105121192J. Motak1.671211108113WSep 1 · 10:00L. Martinec2.2011861172J. Foltynek1.61511118113LAug 26 · 16:58I. Palmi1.531111113J. Foltynek2.383470LAug 26 · 16:30J. Foltynek2.105111191I. Palmi1.6711913113LAug 26 · 15:00J. Foltynek1.83711751A. Kanak1.8311811113LAug 26 · 14:00S. Blabla1.831191311113J. Foltynek1.8341115852WAug 15 · 12:59J. Toth1.3710970J. Foltynek2.871211113WAug 15 · 12:30I. Palmi1.5011119392J. Foltynek2.50671111113
L. Martinec10
WSep 1 · 12:58L. Martinec1.44511711113J. Motak2.6311711592WSep 1 · 12:00L. Martinec1.2812131113113J. Motak3.50141541192LSep 1 · 11:30V. Matysek2.101111123L. Martinec1.6728100LSep 1 · 10:00L. Martinec2.2011861172J. Foltynek1.61511118113WJul 20 · 12:58L. Martinec1.2811511123J. Motak3.506116101WJul 20 · 12:30L. Martinec1.401111113J. Motak2.756540LJul 20 · 11:00L. Martinec2.75126612122M. Derco1.4010111110143LJul 20 · 10:00J. Foltynek1.53118411113L. Martinec2.3871111562WJun 30 · 13:00L. Martinec1.401111113J. Motak2.758660WJun 30 · 12:30J. Motak1.8091280L. Martinec1.911114113
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