TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Vlastimil Matysek vs Jiri Motak 3-0 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 2Finished
Vlastimil Matysek
Home
1.29
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
114112113––––
Jiri Motak
Away
3.50
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:25 and never touched: 73.1% is still 73.1%
Graded at full timeVlastimil Matysek to win
73.1%
73.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingVlastimil Matysek above · Jiri Motak below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 11-2
Set 3 · 11-3
Point 42 set 3, 11-3 · our read held Vlastimil Matysek at 73.1%
42 points played in total.
H2H Vlastimil Matysek 2–0 Jiri Motak Jiri Motak has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:2573.1%Our read77.8%to break even at 1.285
short by 4.7pp77.8% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.285 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.28 (73%)
Matysek
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-0 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Matysek 1161 vs Motak 996
Matysek
Correct
both rated, 166 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Matysek 60% vs Motak 20%
Matysek
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Matysek 50% vs Motak 10%
Matysek
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Matysek +1 · Motak -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 73% · Strong (leans Matysek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Matysek form (60%) is below what odds imply (78%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMatysek 1.285 / Motak 3.50
Signal prob.73% / 27%
Edge (Matysek)-4.7pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13228066
Matysek1.28
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 31 days ago (Sep 01) · back after a break
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Motak3.50
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 31 days ago (Sep 01) · back after a break
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog26% won 7 of 27
Down 0–1, comes back6% 1 of 17
Down 0–2, comes back7% 1 of 15
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeMatysek2wins
AwayMotak0wins
Matysek leads 2–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home2
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricMatysekMotakMatysek − MotakBasisWins20+2in 2 meetingsFirst set20+2of 2Avg pointsper match33.021.0+12.0per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMatysekMotakBasisWin rate · lifetime22 / 56 vs 47 / 12739.3%37%22 / 56 vs 47 / 127Avg sets wonper match1.71.7per matchAvg pointsper match34.534.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MatysekMatysek 1.28/Motak 3.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
73.1%
Matysek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Matysek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WSep 1 · 10:30V. Matysek331111113J. Motak237970
WMar 3 · 09:00V. Matysek331111113J. Motak198560
V. Matysek10
WOct 2 · 11:00L. Martinec2.387141011142V. Matysek1.531112126163WSep 1 · 13:30J. Foltynek1.3061110121V. Matysek3.4011712143LSep 1 · 12:30J. Foltynek1.331111113V. Matysek3.256860WSep 1 · 11:30V. Matysek2.101111123L. Martinec1.6728100WSep 1 · 10:30J. Motak2.257970V. Matysek1.571111113LApr 20 · 17:00V. Matysek1.859101161P. Romba1.8511128113LApr 20 · 16:30V. Matysek1.837450A. Jancak1.831111113LApr 20 · 15:00V. Matysek1.9110101161L. Martinec1.8012129113WApr 20 · 14:00P. Romba1.736101161V. Matysek2.0011125113LMar 3 · 10:28J. Foltynek—1111113V. Matysek—3850
J. Motak10
LSep 1 · 12:58L. Martinec1.44511711113J. Motak2.6311711592LSep 1 · 12:00L. Martinec1.2812131113113J. Motak3.50141541192WSep 1 · 11:00J. Foltynek2.10105121192J. Motak1.671211108113LSep 1 · 10:30J. Motak2.257970V. Matysek1.571111113LJul 20 · 12:58L. Martinec1.2811511123J. Motak3.506116101LJul 20 · 12:30L. Martinec1.401111113J. Motak2.756540LJul 20 · 11:30J. Motak1.61139114102J. Foltynek2.201111511123LJul 20 · 10:30M. Derco1.671111113J. Motak2.103520LJun 30 · 13:00L. Martinec1.401111113J. Motak2.758660LJun 30 · 12:30J. Motak1.8091280L. Martinec1.911114113
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