TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Mykhailo Senyk vs Oleksandr Bolnyh 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
9111513119811711
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:20 and never touched: 67.1% is still 67.1%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Bolnyh to win
67.1%
67.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMykhailo Senyk above · Oleksandr Bolnyh below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 15-13
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 105 set 5, 7-11 · our read held Oleksandr Bolnyh at 67.1%
105 points played in total.
H2H Mykhailo Senyk 17–16 Oleksandr Bolnyh Oleksandr Bolnyh has won 16 of their 33 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:2067.1%Our read71.4%to break even at 1.40
short by 4.3pp71.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.40 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Bolnyh
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
17-16 in 33
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Senyk 687 vs Bolnyh 774
Bolnyh
Correct
both rated, 87 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Senyk 60% vs Bolnyh 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Senyk 70% vs Bolnyh 50%
Senyk
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Senyk +1 · Bolnyh -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% · Clear lean (leans Bolnyh) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Bolnyh form (60%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSenyk 2.75 / Bolnyh 1.40
Signal prob.33% / 67%
Edge (Bolnyh)-4.3pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13223791
Senyk2.75
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog17% won 19 of 109
Down 0–1, comes back5% 4 of 80
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 52
Bolnyh1.40
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite70% won 45 of 64
Up 2–0, closes it92% 24 of 26
Up 1–0, closes it82% 37 of 45
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSenyk2wins
AwayBolnyh8wins
2 of 10 to a deciderBolnyh leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSenyk66.7%2 of 3
AwayBolnyh100%7 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Senyk3Bolnyh7n = 10Bolnyh took 7 of 10
S2Senyk5Bolnyh5n = 10split evenly
S3Senyk5Bolnyh5n = 10split evenly
S4Senyk1Bolnyh6n = 7Bolnyh took 6 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricSenykBolnyhS − BBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match34.838.9−4.1per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSenykBolnyhBasisWin rate · lifetime153 / 360 vs 89 / 19942.5%44.7%153 / 360 vs 89 / 199Avg sets wonper match1.81.9per matchAvg pointsper match35.436.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
BolnyhSenyk 2.75/Bolnyh 1.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
67.1%
Bolnyh · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Bolnyh won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 19 · 07:55M. Senyk385149101O. Bolnyh46111211123
LSep 18 · 14:55M. Senyk2789100O. Bolnyh341111123
LSep 5 · 06:25M. Senyk33771181O. Bolnyh3911116113
LAug 13 · 11:25M. Senyk351161081O. Bolnyh3841112113
LAug 12 · 12:55M. Senyk34714581O. Bolnyh45111211113
WAug 7 · 05:55M. Senyk331111113O. Bolnyh215790
WAug 6 · 05:25M. Senyk4211812113O. Bolnyh399111091
LAug 5 · 13:25M. Senyk3621111662O. Bolnyh49119711113
LJul 18 · 06:25M. Senyk46711117102O. Bolnyh44118211123
LJul 17 · 13:55M. Senyk2410770O. Bolnyh341211113
M. Senyk10
WOct 1 · 14:25I. Fokin1.2071116592M. Senyk4.331181411113LOct 1 · 12:55M. Senyk6.5081080Y. Shcherbak1.101112113WSep 27 · 17:55V. Moroz3.7511611652M. Senyk1.25911611113WSep 27 · 16:55M. Senyk1.171112611113A. Lanchut4.50110111392LSep 27 · 15:53M. Senyk2.505121191V. Slobodian1.5011145113WSep 27 · 14:25M. Senyk1.3311126993O. Kulbach3.25710111182WSep 27 · 12:25M. Senyk1.61119911113V. Sydorchuk2.2091111972LSep 22 · 10:25M. Senyk3.25511361R. Skoropad1.3311411113WSep 22 · 08:55M. Senyk7.001011115113O. Martynenko1.0812621172WSep 22 · 07:25M. Senyk1.61116137113V. Sydorchuk2.20911111182
O. Bolnyh10
LOct 1 · 13:25O. Martynenko1.67121111123O. Bolnyh2.101468101LOct 1 · 12:25I. Fokin1.251111153O. Bolnyh3.7538130WSep 19 · 11:25V. Sydorchuk2.00814971O. Bolnyh1.73111211113WSep 19 · 09:55O. Bolnyh1.171111113M. Kornijchuk4.505390WSep 19 · 07:55M. Senyk3.005149101O. Bolnyh1.36111211123LSep 19 · 05:55P. Chyzh1.28115116123O. Bolnyh3.50711411102LSep 19 · 04:55B. Pyrtyk1.331081111113O. Bolnyh3.2512118632LSep 18 · 18:55O. Bolnyh2.7566100P. Chyzh1.401111123WSep 18 · 16:55V. Moroz4.00115471O. Bolnyh1.2261111113WSep 18 · 14:55M. Senyk3.0089100O. Bolnyh1.361111123
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