TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Illia Fokin vs Mykhailo Senyk 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
7111181614511911
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:19 and never touched: 82.3% is still 82.3%
Graded at full timeIllia Fokin to win
82.3%
82.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingIllia Fokin above · Mykhailo Senyk below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 16-14
Set 4 · 5-11
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 103 set 5, 9-11 · our read held Illia Fokin at 82.3%
103 points played in total.
H2H Illia Fokin 5–2 Mykhailo Senyk Mykhailo Senyk has won 2 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:1982.3%Our read83.3%to break even at 1.20
short by 1.0pp83.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.20 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.20 (78%)
Fokin
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
5-2 in 7
Fokin
Wrong
gap of 3 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Fokin 1043 vs Senyk 665
Fokin
Wrong
both rated, 378 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Fokin 60% vs Senyk 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Fokin 40% vs Senyk 60%
Senyk
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Fokin +1 · Senyk -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 82% · Strong (leans Fokin) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Senyk form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (23%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFokin 1.20 / Senyk 4.333
Signal prob.82% / 18%
Edge (Fokin)-1.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13223606
Fokin1.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite58% won 60 of 104
Up 2–0, closes it85% 33 of 39
Up 1–0, closes it73% 49 of 67
Senyk4.33
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog17% won 19 of 109
Down 0–1, comes back5% 4 of 80
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 52
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeFokin5wins
AwaySenyk2wins
2 of 7 to a deciderFokin leads 5–2, and 2 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeFokin100%4 of 4
AwaySenyk66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Fokin4Senyk3n = 7Fokin took 4 of 7
S2Fokin2Senyk5n = 7Senyk took 5 of 7
S3Fokin4Senyk3n = 7Fokin took 4 of 7
S4Fokin4Senyk1n = 5Fokin took 4 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home114%
3–1Four sets, home229%
3–2Decider, home229%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away114%
0–3Straight, away114%
These 7 meetings
MetricFokinSenykF − SBasisWins52+3in 7 meetingsFirst set43+1of 7Avg pointsper match40.338.6+1.7per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFokinSenykBasisWin rate · lifetime150 / 293 vs 152 / 35951.2%42.3%150 / 293 vs 152 / 359Avg sets wonper match2.01.8per matchAvg pointsper match38.035.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
FokinFokin 1.20/Senyk 4.33
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
82.3%
Fokin · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Senyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WAug 14 · 18:25I. Fokin47111411113M. Senyk40716891
LJun 12 · 09:25I. Fokin356711111M. Senyk4411119133
WJun 11 · 13:25I. Fokin571181611113M. Senyk5391118962
WJun 8 · 13:25I. Fokin3611113113M. Senyk37991181
LJan 27 · 07:35I. Fokin269890M. Senyk331111113
WJan 24 · 08:25I. Fokin331111113M. Senyk258890
WJan 23 · 15:55I. Fokin48961111113M. Senyk3811114482
I. Fokin10
WOct 1 · 12:25I. Fokin1.251111153O. Bolnyh3.7538130LSep 24 · 10:55O. Maslovskyi1.6781111113I. Fokin2.10117931WSep 24 · 09:55M. Treschetka1.30911101172I. Fokin3.40111127113LSep 24 · 08:25M. Dunas1.731111113I. Fokin2.006250WSep 24 · 06:25Y. Shcherbak3.751111101042I. Fokin1.25591212113LSep 24 · 04:25V. Ivanytskyi2.001111123I. Fokin1.7356100WSep 23 · 18:25V. Ivanytskyi2.1081171292I. Fokin1.671191110113LSep 23 · 17:25M. Dunas1.91101711113I. Fokin1.801215991LSep 23 · 15:55A. Nikolenko1.80661111113I. Fokin1.9111118962LSep 23 · 13:55M. Treschetka1.501111113I. Fokin2.508790
M. Senyk10
LOct 1 · 12:55M. Senyk6.5081080Y. Shcherbak1.101112113WSep 27 · 17:55V. Moroz3.7511611652M. Senyk1.25911611113WSep 27 · 16:55M. Senyk1.171112611113A. Lanchut4.50110111392LSep 27 · 15:53M. Senyk2.505121191V. Slobodian1.5011145113WSep 27 · 14:25M. Senyk1.3311126993O. Kulbach3.25710111182WSep 27 · 12:25M. Senyk1.61119911113V. Sydorchuk2.2091111972LSep 22 · 10:25M. Senyk3.25511361R. Skoropad1.3311411113WSep 22 · 08:55M. Senyk7.001011115113O. Martynenko1.0812621172WSep 22 · 07:25M. Senyk1.61116137113V. Sydorchuk2.20911111182LSep 22 · 05:55M. Senyk5.001014751B. Pyrtyk1.14121211113
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