TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Mykolay Treschetka vs Illia Fokin 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 24Finished
Mykolay Treschetka
Home
1.30
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
9111111012117711
Illia Fokin
Away
3.40
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:05 and never touched — 76.7% is still 76.7%
Graded at full timeMykolay Treschetka to win
76.7%
76.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMykolay Treschetka above · Illia Fokin below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-1
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 90 set 5, 7-11 — our read held Mykolay Treschetka at 76.7%
90 points played in total.
H2H Mykolay Treschetka 6–0 Illia Fokin Illia Fokin has won 0 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:05What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (72%)
Treschetka
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-0 in 6
Treschetka
Wrong
gap of 6 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Treschetka 1198 vs Fokin 1031
Treschetka
Wrong
both rated, 167 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Treschetka 80% vs Fokin 40%
Treschetka
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Treschetka 80% vs Fokin 30%
Treschetka
Wrong
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Treschetka -1 · Fokin -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 77% — Strong (leans Treschetka)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Fokin form (40%) outperforms what odds imply (29%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTreschetka 1.30 / Fokin 3.40
Signal prob.77% / 23%
Edge (Treschetka)+4.4pp
Setka Cup · #13185282
Treschetka1.30
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite67% won 67 of 100
Up 2–0, closes it94% 33 of 35
Up 1–0, closes it83% 47 of 57
Fokin3.40
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog43% won 35 of 82
Down 0–1, comes back27% 13 of 48
Down 0–2, comes back10% 2 of 21
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeTreschetka6wins
AwayFokin0wins
2 of 6 to a deciderTreschetka leads 6–0, and 2 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTreschetka100%4 of 4
AwayFokinn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Treschetka4Fokin2n = 6Treschetka took 4 of 6
S2Treschetka4Fokin2n = 6Treschetka took 4 of 6
S3Treschetka5Fokin1n = 6Treschetka took 5 of 6
S4Treschetka3Fokin1n = 4Treschetka took 3 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home233%
3–1Four sets, home233%
3–2Decider, home233%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricTreschetkaFokinT − FBasisWins60+6in 6 meetingsFirst set42+2of 6Avg pointsper match41.332.8+8.5per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTreschetkaFokinBasisWin rate · lifetime471 / 937 vs 148 / 29050.3%51%471 / 937 vs 148 / 290Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.238.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TreschetkaTreschetka 1.30/Fokin 3.40
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
76.7%
Treschetka · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Fokin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WSep 23 · 13:55M. Treschetka331111113I. Fokin248790
WSep 18 · 05:55M. Treschetka4581111153I. Fokin321135131
WSep 17 · 13:25M. Treschetka51119137113I. Fokin47511111192
WSep 14 · 04:55M. Treschetka47591111113I. Fokin4411116882
WSep 13 · 13:25M. Treschetka3911116113I. Fokin34791171
WApr 28 · 05:55M. Treschetka331111113I. Fokin164840
M. Treschetka10
LSep 24 · 07:55O. Maslovskyi1.5381213113M. Treschetka2.3811101191WSep 24 · 05:55V. Ivanytskyi2.6364120M. Treschetka1.441111143WSep 24 · 04:55M. Dunas2.20411561M. Treschetka1.6111911113WSep 23 · 18:55M. Treschetka1.57411119113M. Dunas2.2511981182WSep 23 · 16:55A. Nikolenko2.755114111M. Treschetka1.4011711133WSep 23 · 14:55O. Maslovskyi1.5067111172M. Treschetka2.50111189113WSep 23 · 13:55M. Treschetka1.501111113I. Fokin2.508790WSep 23 · 12:55V. Ivanytskyi2.505350M. Treschetka1.501111113LSep 20 · 16:53O. Maslovskyi1.571111113M. Treschetka2.255670WSep 20 · 14:55V. Salivonchyk1.616360M. Treschetka2.201111113
I. Fokin10
LSep 24 · 10:55O. Maslovskyi1.6781111113I. Fokin2.10117931LSep 24 · 08:25M. Dunas1.731111113I. Fokin2.006250WSep 24 · 06:25Y. Shcherbak3.751111101042I. Fokin1.25591212113LSep 24 · 04:25V. Ivanytskyi2.001111123I. Fokin1.7356100WSep 23 · 18:25V. Ivanytskyi2.1081171292I. Fokin1.671191110113LSep 23 · 17:25M. Dunas1.91101711113I. Fokin1.801215991LSep 23 · 15:55A. Nikolenko1.80661111113I. Fokin1.9111118962LSep 23 · 13:55M. Treschetka1.501111113I. Fokin2.508790LSep 23 · 11:55O. Maslovskyi1.831118113I. Fokin1.8371620LSep 20 · 17:25I. Fokin3.7511340V. Kheresko1.251311113
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