TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Danylo Kasian vs Kyrylo Tkachenko 3-0 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 29Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
13111210119––––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:20 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDanylo Kasian to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingDanylo Kasian above · Kyrylo Tkachenko below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 66 set 3, 11-9 · our read held Danylo Kasian at 54.0%
66 points played in total.
H2H Danylo Kasian 2–0 Kyrylo Tkachenko Kyrylo Tkachenko has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:20What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Kasian
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-0 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Kasian 1371 vs Tkachenko 1414
Tkachenko
Wrong
both rated, 43 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kasian 60% vs Tkachenko 40%
Kasian
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kasian 60% vs Tkachenko 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kasian -1 · Tkachenko +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Kasian) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKasian 1.73 / Tkachenko 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kasian)+0.3pp
Setka Cup · #13212915
Kasian1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite62% won 24 of 39
Up 2–0, closes it92% 12 of 13
Up 1–0, closes it67% 14 of 21
Tkachenko2.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog24% won 8 of 34
Down 0–1, comes back16% 3 of 19
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 9
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeKasian2wins
AwayTkachenko0wins
1 of 2 to a deciderKasian leads 2–0, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricKasianTkachenkoK − TBasisWins20+2in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match44.041.0+3.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKasianTkachenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime46 / 77 vs 104 / 18459.7%56.5%46 / 77 vs 104 / 184Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.237.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KasianKasian 1.73/Tkachenko 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Kasian · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Kasian won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WSep 22 · 13:55D. Kasian48911511123K. Tkachenko46118116102
WSep 15 · 12:55D. Kasian4011117113K. Tkachenko36971191
D. Kasian10
LSep 29 · 12:25D. Kasian1.83711391D. Ponomarenko1.8311611113WSep 22 · 18:25O. Melnik2.006890D. Kasian1.731111113LSep 22 · 17:25D. Kozoriz1.44611511133D. Kasian2.63118116112WSep 22 · 15:55S. Kryvoshyi2.509950D. Kasian1.501111113WSep 22 · 13:55K. Tkachenko1.91118116102D. Kasian1.80911511123WSep 22 · 11:55V. Hel1.9171161372D. Kasian1.801181111113WSep 21 · 11:35O. Maslovskyi2.5013880D. Kasian1.501511113LSep 21 · 10:05D. Kasian1.361161171S. Kryvoshyi3.0091113113WSep 21 · 08:05M. Vivatenko2.75671191D. Kasian1.4011119113LSep 21 · 06:05V. Salivonchyk2.101111133D. Kasian1.6799110
K. Tkachenko10
WSep 29 · 15:25K. Tkachenko1.801111113D. Ponomarenko1.915570WSep 29 · 12:55K. Tkachenko1.571111113S. Kryvoshyi2.256790WSep 22 · 18:55K. Tkachenko1.80911811103D. Kozoriz1.9111611832LSep 22 · 16:55S. Kryvoshyi2.751111113K. Tkachenko1.408470LSep 22 · 14:55V. Hel2.50811115113K. Tkachenko1.5011691162LSep 22 · 13:55K. Tkachenko1.91118116102D. Kasian1.80911511123WSep 22 · 12:55O. Melnik6.506690K. Tkachenko1.101111113WSep 15 · 18:25K. Tkachenko1.57116811113V. Hel2.2531111762WSep 15 · 16:25O. Maksymkiv3.4011911762K. Tkachenko1.30711811113WSep 15 · 15:25K. Tkachenko1.441711113S. Kryvoshyi2.6315970
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