TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Serhii Kovalenko vs Volodymyr Nechai 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 27Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
811117711311––
Volodymyr Nechai
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:17 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeVolodymyr Nechai to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSerhii Kovalenko above · Volodymyr Nechai below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 3-11
Point 69 set 4, 3-11 — our read held Volodymyr Nechai at 54.0%
69 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Kovalenko 0–1 Volodymyr Nechai Serhii Kovalenko has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:17What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Nechai
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-1 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Kovalenko 1193 vs Nechai 1332
Nechai
Correct
both rated, 140 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kovalenko 80% vs Nechai 20%
Kovalenko
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kovalenko 60% vs Nechai 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kovalenko +2 · Nechai -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Nechai)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Nechai form (20%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKovalenko 1.91 / Nechai 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Nechai)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13203424
Kovalenko1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 7 days ago (Sep 20) · back after a break
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog46% won 5 of 11
Down 0–1, comes back33% 3 of 9
Nechai1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 7 days ago (Sep 20) · back after a break
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeKovalenko0wins
AwayNechai1wins
Nechai leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricKovalenkoNechaiK − NBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match29.040.0−11.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKovalenkoNechaiBasisWin rate · lifetime31 / 72 vs 3 / 743.1%42.9%31 / 72 vs 3 / 7Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.637.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NechaiKovalenko 1.91/Nechai 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Nechai · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Nechai won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LSep 27 · 06:05S. Kovalenko29811731V. Nechai4011711113
S. Kovalenko10
WSep 20 · 17:10V. Kondratenko1.40119971S. Kovalenko2.7581111113WSep 20 · 16:10V. Mykhalchenko1.80117671S. Kovalenko1.9161111113LSep 20 · 14:40O. Stopin1.6511102S. Kovalenko2.05480LSep 20 · 12:40Y. Korotin1.50118118143S. Kovalenko2.50511711122WSep 20 · 10:40V. Varchenko1.57871151S. Kovalenko2.2511112113WAug 22 · 12:20S. Kovalenko1.3611125113K. Vernudin3.006101161LAug 22 · 10:20O. Ponomarenko1.8311511113S. Kovalenko1.83711691LAug 22 · 09:20S. Kovalenko1.5711514792M. Tkalich2.254111211113WAug 22 · 08:20D. Kunchurov2.388790S. Kovalenko1.531111113WAug 22 · 06:50S. Kovalenko1.80111176113V. Mykhalchenko1.9197111152
V. Nechai10
WSep 27 · 07:05V. Nechai1.831110911113M. Khalenko1.8381211992LSep 20 · 18:00V. Nechai2.00741291S. Skhabitskiy1.73111110113LSep 20 · 16:29V. Nechai1.91611111062V. Smyk1.80112912113WSep 20 · 14:59V. Nechai1.83101111113D. Ponomarenko1.83126981LSep 20 · 13:32V. Nechai1.57112771O. Lipeiko2.2591111113LSep 20 · 12:00V. Nechai2.0051070O. Ovsiienko1.731112113WFeb 5 · 10:20D. Khairov—41111792V. Nechai—118911113WFeb 5 · 08:20L. Dynaburg—114421V. Nechai—41111113LFeb 5 · 07:20V. Melnykov—511612113V. Nechai—114111082WJan 31 · 13:20V. Nechai—1211412113L. Dynaburg—1013111042
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