TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Ondrej Polak vs Matej Holub 3-2 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 26Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
15171210811118118
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:07 and never touched — 61.7% is still 61.7%
Graded at full timeOndrej Polak to win
61.7%
61.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOndrej Polak above · Matej Holub below
Set 1 · 15-17
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 111 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Ondrej Polak at 61.7%
111 points played in total.
H2H Ondrej Polak 0–1 Matej Holub Ondrej Polak has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:07What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Polak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-1 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Polak 1749 vs Holub 1604
Polak
Correct
both rated, 145 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Polak 60% vs Holub 20%
Polak
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Polak 70% vs Holub 50%
Polak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Polak -1 · Holub -3
Holub
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Slight lean (leans Polak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Holub form (20%) is below what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPolak 1.57 / Holub 2.25
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Polak)+2.8pp
TT Cup · #13197325
Polak1.57
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite59% won 33 of 56
Up 2–0, closes it86% 19 of 22
Up 1–0, closes it78% 25 of 32
Holub2.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog52% won 41 of 79
Down 0–1, comes back33% 14 of 43
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 24
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomePolak0wins
AwayHolub1wins
Holub leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricPolakHolubP − HBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match35.038.0−3.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPolakHolubBasisWin rate · lifetime95 / 163 vs 123 / 21958.3%56.2%95 / 163 vs 123 / 219Avg sets wonper match2.32.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.738.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PolakPolak 1.57/Holub 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
61.7%
Polak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Polak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LSep 10 · 14:35O. Polak356111081M. Holub3811412113
O. Polak10
LSep 26 · 11:05J. Hitzger1.801111113O. Polak1.919890WSep 26 · 10:35O. Stehlik2.2011711712O. Polak1.61811911113LSep 20 · 13:35O. Polak1.338116101J. Ruzicka3.2511811123WSep 20 · 12:05O. Stehlik1.918960O. Polak1.801111113WSep 20 · 11:35J. Ruzicka1.80115941O. Polak1.9161111113WSep 20 · 10:35O. Polak1.8311911113A. Veliiev1.83811871WSep 20 · 09:39T. Trnka2.00961191O. Polak1.7311118113WSep 20 · 08:05O. Polak1.801111113S. Vyskocil1.915680LSep 20 · 07:05O. Polak1.5710770T. Trnka2.251211113WSep 20 · 06:05O. Polak1.401111113J. Ruzicka2.757790
M. Holub10
LSep 26 · 11:35M. Holub2.10115671O. Stehlik1.6761111113LSep 26 · 10:05J. Hitzger1.5311812113M. Holub2.387111071LSep 25 · 13:35J. Ruzicka1.611111113M. Holub2.207870WSep 25 · 12:05M. Holub1.80911111113J. Ruzicka1.9111731182LSep 25 · 11:05M. Holub1.91411111172R. Neterda1.80118913113WSep 25 · 10:05M. Holub1.67111299113K. Lahodny2.10910111152LSep 10 · 17:40M. Holub2.256411101J. Ruzicka1.5711117123WSep 10 · 16:35M. Holub2.381211113M. Mastera1.5310870WSep 10 · 15:05J. Ruzicka1.50118911102M. Holub2.50811119123WSep 10 · 14:35O. Polak1.506111081M. Holub2.5011412113
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