TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Evgeniy Pismenniy vs Valeriy Melnik 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 25Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
117411113117––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:16 and never touched — 65.7% is still 65.7%
Graded at full timeValeriy Melnik to win
65.7%
65.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingEvgeniy Pismenniy above · Valeriy Melnik below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 11-3
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 65 set 4, 11-7 — our read held Valeriy Melnik at 65.7%
65 points played in total.
H2H Evgeniy Pismenniy 85–142 Valeriy Melnik Evgeniy Pismenniy has won 85 of their 227 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:16What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Melnik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
85-142 in 227
Melnik
Wrong
gap of 57 in 227, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pismenniy 1522 vs Melnik 1724
Melnik
Wrong
both rated, 202 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pismenniy 40% vs Melnik 100%
Melnik
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pismenniy 30% vs Melnik 70%
Melnik
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Pismenniy +2 · Melnik +5
Melnik
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Melnik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Melnik form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPismenniy 2.50 / Melnik 1.50
Signal prob.34% / 66%
Edge (Melnik)+3.2pp
Setka Cup · #13191504
Pismenniy2.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog24% won 60 of 250
Down 0–1, comes back7% 11 of 148
Down 0–2, comes back3% 3 of 94
Melnik1.50
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 5
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite62% won 121 of 195
Up 2–0, closes it100% 65 of 65
Up 1–0, closes it85% 90 of 106
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePismenniy4wins
AwayMelnik6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderMelnik leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePismenniy57.1%4 of 7
AwayMelnik100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pismenniy7Melnik3n = 10Pismenniy took 7 of 10
S2Pismenniy7Melnik3n = 10Pismenniy took 7 of 10
S3Pismenniy3Melnik7n = 10Melnik took 7 of 10
S4Pismenniy2Melnik5n = 7Melnik took 5 of 7
S5Pismenniy1Melnik3n = 4Melnik took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricPismenniyMelnikP − MBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match38.838.5+0.3per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPismenniyMelnikBasisWin rate · lifetime204 / 691 vs 377 / 67429.5%55.9%204 / 691 vs 377 / 674Avg sets wonper match1.62.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.738.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MelnikPismenniy 2.50/Melnik 1.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
65.7%
Melnik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Pismenniy won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 13 · 15:55E. Pismenniy4611118792V. Melnik41531111113
LSep 12 · 19:25E. Pismenniy49711911112V. Melnik49115119133
WSep 11 · 22:25E. Pismenniy51151159113V. Melnik43134111142
WSep 6 · 15:55E. Pismenniy341211113V. Melnik2410860
LSep 4 · 23:55E. Pismenniy25115631V. Melnik4071111113
WAug 29 · 15:55E. Pismenniy361113123V. Melnik30911100
LAug 29 · 00:55E. Pismenniy5411111010122V. Melnik56991212143
LAug 23 · 15:55E. Pismenniy227780V. Melnik331111113
LAug 22 · 13:55E. Pismenniy30651181V. Melnik4011117113
WAug 22 · 03:55E. Pismenniy4111118113V. Melnik29751161
E. Pismenniy10
WSep 25 · 21:55E. Pismenniy3.0011711123Y. Masko1.368116101WSep 20 · 19:55Y. Masko1.536118141E. Pismenniy2.3811811163LSep 20 · 18:55A. Tuzhylin1.11511713113E. Pismenniy6.00116111172LSep 20 · 17:25S. Hohenko1.3691111113E. Pismenniy3.00116461LSep 20 · 13:25R. Reznychenko2.009111113243E. Pismenniy1.73118715222LSep 19 · 19:55E. Pismenniy2.389890Y. Masko1.531111113LSep 19 · 17:55A. Tuzhylin1.111111113E. Pismenniy6.007650WSep 19 · 16:55E. Pismenniy1.7391111113R. Reznychenko2.00116981LSep 19 · 15:55R. Cherevko1.44178911113E. Pismenniy2.63151111592LSep 19 · 14:25E. Pismenniy3.2557121482S. Hohenko1.3311111012113
V. Melnik10
WSep 25 · 22:25V. Melnik1.8315811123R. Cherevko1.8313116101WSep 13 · 19:25R. Reznychenko3.00104100V. Melnik1.361211123WSep 13 · 18:25V. Melnik2.101111113A. Tuzhylin1.675880WSep 13 · 17:25V. Melnik1.91951111113R. Cherevko1.8011117762WSep 13 · 15:55V. Melnik1.50531111113E. Pismenniy2.5011118792LSep 13 · 13:55V. Melnik1.6511991192Y. Masko2.05711118113WSep 12 · 19:25E. Pismenniy2.63711911112V. Melnik1.44115119133WSep 12 · 18:25V. Melnik1.9181112113R. Cherevko1.801191091LSep 12 · 17:25V. Melnik1.3391161182R. Reznychenko3.25119119113LSep 12 · 15:55V. Melnik1.83817110Y. Masko1.831119133
Upcoming Matches
E. Pismenniy
Sep 26 · 01:25E. Pismenniy6.50A. Tuzhylin1.10—Sep 26 · 02:25E. Pismenniy2.63R. Cherevko1.44—Sep 26 · 03:25E. Pismenniy1.61R. Reznychenko2.20—Sep 26 · 13:55E. Pismenniy2.50V. Melnik1.50—Sep 26 · 14:55E. Pismenniy6.50A. Tuzhylin1.10—Sep 26 · 16:55E. Pismenniy3.00Y. Masko1.36—Sep 26 · 18:55E. Pismenniy2.63R. Cherevko1.44—Sep 26 · 20:25E. Pismenniy1.61R. Reznychenko2.20—
V. Melnik
Sep 26 · 01:55V. Melnik1.40R. Reznychenko2.75—Sep 26 · 03:55V. Melnik2.38A. Tuzhylin1.53—Sep 26 · 13:55V. Melnik1.50E. Pismenniy2.50—Sep 26 · 15:55V. Melnik1.73Y. Masko2.00—Sep 26 · 17:25V. Melnik1.91R. Cherevko1.80—Sep 26 · 18:25V. Melnik1.40R. Reznychenko2.75—Sep 26 · 19:25V. Melnik2.38A. Tuzhylin1.53—
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