TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Martin Holub vs David Sabuka 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 25Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1012811116811––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:09 and never touched — 59.3% is still 59.3%
Graded at full timeMartin Holub to win
59.3%
59.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMartin Holub above · David Sabuka below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 77 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Martin Holub at 59.3%
77 points played in total.
H2H Martin Holub 10–4 David Sabuka David Sabuka has won 4 of their 14 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:09What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Holub
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-4 in 14
Holub
Wrong
gap of 6 in 14, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Holub 1367 vs Sabuka 1337
Holub
Wrong
both rated, 30 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Holub 60% vs Sabuka 20%
Holub
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Holub 60% vs Sabuka 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Holub +1 · Sabuka -3
Sabuka
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Holub)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sabuka form (20%) is below what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHolub 1.61 / Sabuka 2.20
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Holub)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13190519
Holub1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Sep 23)
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite57% won 93 of 163
Up 2–0, closes it98% 44 of 45
Up 1–0, closes it72% 65 of 90
Sabuka2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Sep 23)
Lost last 3
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog27% won 24 of 88
Down 0–1, comes back14% 9 of 64
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 38
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHolub7wins
AwaySabuka3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderHolub leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHolub85.7%6 of 7
AwaySabuka66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Holub7Sabuka3n = 10Holub took 7 of 10
S2Holub3Sabuka7n = 10Sabuka took 7 of 10
S3Holub7Sabuka3n = 10Holub took 7 of 10
S4Holub6Sabuka2n = 8Holub took 6 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricHolubSabukaH − SBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match40.336.8+3.5per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHolubSabukaBasisWin rate · lifetime359 / 651 vs 245 / 51355.2%47.8%359 / 651 vs 245 / 513Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match40.038.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HolubHolub 1.61/Sabuka 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.9%
Holub · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Sabuka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 25 · 05:30M. Holub371081181D. Sabuka4012116113
WSep 18 · 09:13M. Holub3911611113D. Sabuka33811681
LSep 18 · 05:30M. Holub30713100D. Sabuka381115123
WSep 14 · 09:30M. Holub501210611113D. Sabuka46101211582
WAug 13 · 09:30M. Holub4011711113D. Sabuka36811891
WAug 12 · 05:30M. Holub4181111113D. Sabuka30115771
LAug 9 · 16:58M. Holub4611713782D. Sabuka517111111113
WAug 9 · 16:00M. Holub331111113D. Sabuka247890
WAug 8 · 21:03M. Holub4613118143D. Sabuka3911511121
WAug 8 · 20:00M. Holub4111811113D. Sabuka31811751
M. Holub10
WSep 23 · 08:39M. Holub1.9111911113F. Fryml1.80511861LSep 23 · 08:00M. Holub2.20881111102P. Moulis1.61111188123WSep 23 · 06:30L. Krutina1.73811981M. Holub2.0011911113LSep 23 · 06:00F. Fryml1.9151111113M. Holub1.80118351WSep 21 · 08:28M. Holub1.338111111113A. Skyba3.2511913562LSep 21 · 08:00L. Krutina1.7312611113M. Holub2.001011371WSep 21 · 07:00A. Skyba3.4011751142M. Holub1.30611118113LSep 21 · 05:30P. Muller3.00911711133M. Holub1.36118115112WSep 18 · 09:13D. Sabuka1.91811681M. Holub1.8011611113WSep 18 · 07:30M. Holub1.40781111113J. Vrnak2.7511117992
D. Sabuka10
LSep 23 · 12:33D. Sabuka1.5071111862R. Slunecko2.50118711113LSep 23 · 12:00M. Melisek1.3611116113D. Sabuka3.00761161LSep 23 · 11:00J. Blazek1.801213113D. Sabuka1.91101180WSep 23 · 09:30R. Slunecko2.501121191D. Sabuka1.5013119113LSep 20 · 21:04M. Cmil1.801111123D. Sabuka1.9189100WSep 20 · 19:30D. Sabuka1.33614118113J. Mares3.25111281192WSep 20 · 18:30D. Sabuka2.009111111113M. Cmil1.7311413972WSep 20 · 17:30D. Sabuka1.3011117113A. Akopyan3.40981141LSep 18 · 09:13D. Sabuka1.91811681M. Holub1.8011611113WSep 18 · 08:00P. Muller2.6313118932D. Sabuka1.441181111113
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