TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 21Finished
Patrik Muller
Home
3.00
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
9111187111151311
Martin Holub
Away
1.36
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:54 and never touched — 70.0% is still 70.0%
Graded at full timeMartin Holub to win
70.0%
70.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPatrik Muller above · Martin Holub below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-5
Set 5 · 13-11
Point 97 set 5, 13-11 — our read held Martin Holub at 70.0%
97 points played in total.
H2H Patrik Muller 6–14 Martin Holub Patrik Muller has won 6 of their 20 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:54What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Holub
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-14 in 20
Holub
Wrong
gap of 8 in 20, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Muller 1198 vs Holub 1397
Holub
Wrong
both rated, 199 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Muller 20% vs Holub 80%
Holub
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Muller 30% vs Holub 70%
Holub
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Muller -3 · Holub +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% — Strong (leans Holub)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Muller form (20%) is below what odds imply (33%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMuller 3.00 / Holub 1.36
Signal prob.30% / 70%
Edge (Holub)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13166300
Muller3.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 3 days ago (Sep 18)
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog38% won 18 of 47
Down 0–1, comes back17% 4 of 23
Down 0–2, comes back13% 2 of 16
Holub1.36
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 3 days ago (Sep 18)
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite58% won 97 of 166
Up 2–0, closes it98% 47 of 48
Up 1–0, closes it75% 70 of 94
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMuller3wins
AwayHolub7wins
1 of 10 to a deciderHolub leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMuller50%2 of 4
AwayHolub83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Muller4Holub6n = 10Holub took 6 of 10
S2Muller5Holub5n = 10split evenly
S3Muller4Holub6n = 10Holub took 6 of 10
S4Muller2Holub7n = 9Holub took 7 of 9
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away770%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMullerHolubM − HBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match34.439.8−5.4per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMullerHolubBasisWin rate · lifetime69 / 155 vs 357 / 64644.5%55.3%69 / 155 vs 357 / 646Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.040.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HolubMuller 3.00/Holub 1.36
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
70%
Holub · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Muller won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 18 · 06:30P. Muller321174101M. Holub4391111123
LSep 6 · 15:00P. Muller341110761M. Holub4281211113
LJun 26 · 09:30P. Muller28311681M. Holub4111811113
LJun 13 · 13:15P. Muller331081141M. Holub4212118113
LJun 3 · 10:00P. Muller31591161M. Holub4211119113
WApr 28 · 12:43P. Muller3711114113M. Holub33971161
WApr 28 · 11:45P. Muller331111113M. Holub257990
WApr 23 · 10:15P. Muller528111111113M. Holub4711813692
LApr 13 · 11:00P. Muller32671181M. Holub4111118113
LFeb 10 · 11:00P. Muller32411981M. Holub4211911113
P. Muller10
LSep 21 · 06:30P. Muller2.75491281L. Krutina1.40111110113LSep 18 · 08:44P. Muller1.4411118362J. Vrnak2.63851111113LSep 18 · 08:00P. Muller2.6313118932D. Sabuka1.441181111113LSep 18 · 06:30M. Holub1.4091111123P. Muller2.751174101WSep 18 · 06:00J. Vrnak2.751151011102P. Muller1.40911124123LSep 10 · 13:14P. Muller1.61911611112T. Holomek2.20113117133WSep 10 · 12:00P. Muller1.5312117113J. Vrnak2.381091151LSep 10 · 10:30T. Holomek2.1010101111113P. Muller1.6712127882WSep 10 · 10:00A. Skyba1.57811731P. Muller2.2511911113LSep 6 · 16:34A. Akopyan2.1012136113P. Muller1.6710111191
M. Holub10
WSep 18 · 09:13D. Sabuka1.91811681M. Holub1.8011611113WSep 18 · 07:30M. Holub1.40781111113J. Vrnak2.7511117992WSep 18 · 06:30M. Holub1.4091111123P. Muller2.751174101LSep 18 · 05:30M. Holub1.53713100D. Sabuka2.381115123WSep 14 · 13:03M. Holub1.806131111113F. Fryml1.9111159672WSep 14 · 12:00J. Jnr1.916101731M. Holub1.80111215113LSep 14 · 11:00F. Fryml2.2512913113M. Holub1.5710111191WSep 14 · 09:30D. Sabuka2.38101211582M. Holub1.531210611113LSep 13 · 15:30M. Snizek1.9111117103M. Holub1.80781171WSep 13 · 15:00M. Holub2.75111171133J. Seeman1.40491111112
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