TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13129421
Played Sep 14Finished
Martin Holub
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
6111315119116117
Filip Fryml
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
How it is goingMartin Holub above · Filip Fryml below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 13-15
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 100 set 5, 11-7
100 points played in total.
H2H Martin Holub 11–9 Filip Fryml Filip Fryml has won 9 of their 20 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Fryml beat Holub 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Fryml)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Fryml form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHolub 1.80 / Fryml 1.91
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Fryml)+5.5pp
Setka Cup · #13129421
Holub1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite58% won 91 of 158
Up 2–0, closes it98% 46 of 47
Up 1–0, closes it74% 67 of 91
Fryml1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog42% won 13 of 31
Down 0–1, comes back29% 5 of 17
Down 0–2, comes back17% 2 of 12
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHolub6wins
AwayFryml4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderHolub leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHolub100%3 of 3
AwayFryml57.1%4 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Holub3Fryml7n = 10Fryml took 7 of 10
S2Holub6Fryml4n = 10Holub took 6 of 10
S3Holub9Fryml1n = 10Holub took 9 of 10
S4Holub3Fryml4n = 8Fryml took 4 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricHolubFrymlH − FBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match38.737.1+1.6per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHolubFrymlBasisWin rate · lifetime364 / 664 vs 76 / 14954.8%51%364 / 664 vs 76 / 149Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.937.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FrymlHolub 1.80/Fryml 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Fryml · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Holub won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 14 · 11:00M. Holub4110111191F. Fryml4512913113
WSep 9 · 07:00M. Holub4151111143F. Fryml391179121
WAug 27 · 09:03M. Holub331111113F. Fryml215790
WAug 27 · 06:30M. Holub528121110113F. Fryml48111061292
LAug 12 · 06:30M. Holub4679111182F. Fryml42111163113
WJun 19 · 08:39M. Holub341211113F. Fryml2310580
WJun 19 · 07:30M. Holub371291513F. Fryml3510111311
WMay 28 · 06:30M. Holub3731112113F. Fryml361171081
LMay 19 · 07:00M. Holub34781181F. Fryml3811115113
LMar 31 · 20:58M. Holub32471381F. Fryml44111111113
M. Holub10
WSep 14 · 12:00J. Jnr1.916101731M. Holub1.80111215113LSep 14 · 11:00F. Fryml2.2512913113M. Holub1.5710111191WSep 14 · 09:30D. Sabuka2.38101211582M. Holub1.531210611113LSep 13 · 15:30M. Snizek1.9111117103M. Holub1.80781171WSep 13 · 15:00M. Holub2.75111171133J. Seeman1.40491111112LSep 13 · 14:00M. Holub1.911183131L. Krutina1.8091111153LSep 9 · 09:09M. Holub1.83511871L. Krutina1.8311611113WSep 9 · 08:00A. Akopyan2.201071461M. Holub1.61121112113WSep 9 · 07:00F. Fryml2.201179121M. Holub1.6151111143LSep 9 · 05:30L. Krutina1.8011118153M. Holub1.916911131
F. Fryml10
WSep 14 · 11:30D. Sabuka1.447101191F. Fryml2.6311127113WSep 14 · 11:00F. Fryml2.2512913113M. Holub1.5710111191WSep 14 · 10:00F. Fryml1.9111128113J. Jnr1.805101171WSep 9 · 08:38A. Akopyan3.2571291132F. Fryml1.331110115113LSep 9 · 07:30L. Krutina2.0091111113F. Fryml1.73115481LSep 9 · 07:00F. Fryml2.201179121M. Holub1.6151111143WSep 9 · 06:00F. Fryml1.611111113A. Akopyan2.207620LAug 27 · 09:03F. Fryml1.835790M. Holub1.831111113WAug 27 · 08:00F. Fryml1.73101111113M. Cmil2.00127981LAug 27 · 06:30M. Holub1.808121110113F. Fryml1.91111061292
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