TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13148454
Played Sep 18Finished
Martin Holub
Home
1.40
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
711811117119119
Jan Vrnak
Away
2.75
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:50 and never touched — 66.7% is still 66.7%
Graded at full timeMartin Holub to win
66.7%
66.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMartin Holub above · Jan Vrnak below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 95 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Martin Holub at 66.7%
95 points played in total.
H2H Martin Holub 36–19 Jan Vrnak Jan Vrnak has won 19 of their 55 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:50What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Holub
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
36-19 in 55
Holub
Correct
gap of 17 in 55, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Holub 1380 vs Vrnak 1135
Holub
Correct
both rated, 245 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Holub 60% vs Vrnak 20%
Holub
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Holub 50% vs Vrnak 20%
Holub
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Holub +1 · Vrnak -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% — Clear lean (leans Holub) · live re-read · sealed at 67% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vrnak form (20%) is below what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHolub 1.40 / Vrnak 2.75
Signal prob.68% / 33%
Edge (Holub)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13148454
Holub1.40
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite58% won 94 of 162
Up 2–0, closes it98% 47 of 48
Up 1–0, closes it74% 69 of 93
Vrnak2.75
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog36% won 19 of 53
Down 0–1, comes back4% 1 of 25
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 17
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHolub8wins
AwayVrnak2wins
4 of 10 to a deciderHolub leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHolub100%5 of 5
AwayVrnak40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Holub5Vrnak5n = 10split evenly
S2Holub5Vrnak5n = 10split evenly
S3Holub8Vrnak2n = 10Holub took 8 of 10
S4Holub8Vrnak1n = 9Holub took 8 of 9
S5Holub2Vrnak2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricHolubVrnakH − VBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match43.638.9+4.7per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHolubVrnakBasisWin rate · lifetime355 / 646 vs 94 / 21755%43.3%355 / 646 vs 94 / 217Avg sets wonper match2.21.8per matchAvg pointsper match40.137.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HolubHolub 1.40/Vrnak 2.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
67.5%
Holub · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Holub won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 18 · 07:30M. Holub48781111113J. Vrnak4711117992
WAug 8 · 18:00M. Holub47111411113J. Vrnak36416971
WAug 6 · 06:00M. Holub4211119113J. Vrnak33791161
WJul 30 · 06:00M. Holub4111611133J. Vrnak359114111
WJun 25 · 08:58M. Holub4311911123J. Vrnak367118101
LJun 25 · 05:45M. Holub4891112882J. Vrnak451121011113
WJun 22 · 09:08M. Holub341112113J. Vrnak2371060
WJun 22 · 05:30M. Holub4691111153J. Vrnak401188131
LMay 28 · 05:30M. Holub4377111172J. Vrnak46111194113
WMay 15 · 08:38M. Holub44611511113J. Vrnak4811911892
M. Holub10
WSep 18 · 06:30M. Holub1.4091111123P. Muller2.751174101LSep 18 · 05:30M. Holub1.53713100D. Sabuka2.381115123WSep 14 · 13:03M. Holub1.806131111113F. Fryml1.9111159672WSep 14 · 12:00J. Jnr1.916101731M. Holub1.80111215113LSep 14 · 11:00F. Fryml2.2512913113M. Holub1.5710111191WSep 14 · 09:30D. Sabuka2.38101211582M. Holub1.531210611113LSep 13 · 15:30M. Snizek1.9111117103M. Holub1.80781171WSep 13 · 15:00M. Holub2.75111171133J. Seeman1.40491111112LSep 13 · 14:00M. Holub1.911183131L. Krutina1.8091111153LSep 9 · 09:09M. Holub1.83511871L. Krutina1.8311611113
J. Vrnak10
LSep 18 · 07:00J. Vrnak3.501141081D. Sabuka1.2841112113LSep 18 · 06:00J. Vrnak2.751151011102P. Muller1.40911124123WSep 10 · 12:43J. Vrnak2.38119114113A. Skyba1.5351131132LSep 10 · 12:00P. Muller1.5312117113J. Vrnak2.381091151LSep 10 · 11:00A. Skyba1.4471111113J. Vrnak2.63116771WSep 10 · 09:30T. Holomek2.2091060J. Vrnak1.611112113LSep 3 · 08:34M. Cmil1.50312711113J. Vrnak2.50111011562LSep 3 · 07:30J. Vrnak2.20961171A. Skyba1.6111115113LSep 3 · 06:30J. Vrnak2.50911771M. Cmil1.5011211113LSep 3 · 05:30J. Vrnak3.401177101L. Krutina1.3041111123
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.