TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Martin Holub vs Filip Fryml 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 23Finished
Martin Holub
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
115911118116––
Filip Fryml
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
How it is goingMartin Holub above · Filip Fryml below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 72 set 4, 11-6
72 points played in total.
H2H Martin Holub 12–10 Filip Fryml Filip Fryml has won 10 of their 22 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Fryml beat Holub 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Fryml)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Fryml form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHolub 1.91 / Fryml 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Fryml)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13182520
Holub1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog50% won 54 of 109
Down 0–1, comes back30% 15 of 50
Down 0–2, comes back10% 2 of 21
Fryml1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite60% won 27 of 45
Up 2–0, closes it93% 13 of 14
Up 1–0, closes it83% 20 of 24
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHolub7wins
AwayFryml3wins
3 of 10 to a deciderHolub leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHolub75%3 of 4
AwayFryml33.3%2 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Holub4Fryml6n = 10Fryml took 6 of 10
S2Holub6Fryml4n = 10Holub took 6 of 10
S3Holub8Fryml2n = 10Holub took 8 of 10
S4Holub4Fryml3n = 7Holub took 4 of 7
S5Holub2Fryml1n = 3Holub took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricHolubFrymlH − FBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match40.337.8+2.5per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHolubFrymlBasisWin rate · lifetime359 / 650 vs 77 / 15255.2%50.7%359 / 650 vs 77 / 152Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match40.138.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FrymlHolub 1.91/Fryml 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Fryml · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Holub won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LSep 23 · 06:00M. Holub27118351F. Fryml3851111113
WSep 14 · 13:03M. Holub526131111113F. Fryml4811159672
LSep 14 · 11:00M. Holub4110111191F. Fryml4512913113
WSep 9 · 07:00M. Holub4151111143F. Fryml391179121
WAug 27 · 09:03M. Holub331111113F. Fryml215790
WAug 27 · 06:30M. Holub528121110113F. Fryml48111061292
LAug 12 · 06:30M. Holub4679111182F. Fryml42111163113
WJun 19 · 08:39M. Holub341211113F. Fryml2310580
WMay 28 · 06:30M. Holub3731112113F. Fryml361171081
M. Holub10
LSep 23 · 08:00M. Holub2.20881111102P. Moulis1.61111188123WSep 23 · 06:30L. Krutina1.73811981M. Holub2.0011911113LSep 23 · 06:00F. Fryml1.9151111113M. Holub1.80118351WSep 21 · 08:28M. Holub1.338111111113A. Skyba3.2511913562LSep 21 · 08:00L. Krutina1.7312611113M. Holub2.001011371WSep 21 · 07:00A. Skyba3.4011751142M. Holub1.30611118113LSep 21 · 05:30P. Muller3.00911711133M. Holub1.36118115112WSep 18 · 09:13D. Sabuka1.91811681M. Holub1.8011611113WSep 18 · 07:30M. Holub1.40781111113J. Vrnak2.7511117992WSep 18 · 06:30M. Holub1.4091111123P. Muller2.751174101
F. Fryml10
LSep 23 · 07:30L. Krutina1.7371111113F. Fryml2.00115781LSep 23 · 07:00F. Fryml2.00511611152P. Moulis1.73116119173WSep 23 · 06:00F. Fryml1.9151111113M. Holub1.80118351LSep 14 · 13:03M. Holub1.806131111113F. Fryml1.9111159672WSep 14 · 11:30D. Sabuka1.447101191F. Fryml2.6311127113WSep 14 · 11:00F. Fryml2.2512913113M. Holub1.5710111191WSep 14 · 10:00F. Fryml1.9111128113J. Jnr1.805101171WSep 9 · 08:38A. Akopyan3.2571291132F. Fryml1.331110115113LSep 9 · 07:30L. Krutina2.0091111113F. Fryml1.73115481LSep 9 · 07:00F. Fryml2.201179121M. Holub1.6151111143
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