TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 21Finished
Antonin Skyba
Home
3.40
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
116711511118411
Martin Holub
Away
1.30
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:29 and never touched — 76.7% is still 76.7%
Graded at full timeMartin Holub to win
76.7%
76.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAntonin Skyba above · Martin Holub below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 4-11
Point 85 set 5, 4-11 — our read held Martin Holub at 76.7%
85 points played in total.
H2H Antonin Skyba 11–23 Martin Holub Antonin Skyba has won 11 of their 34 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:29What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (72%)
Holub
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-23 in 34
Holub
Correct
gap of 12 in 34, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Skyba 1221 vs Holub 1376
Holub
Correct
both rated, 156 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skyba 60% vs Holub 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skyba 40% vs Holub 60%
Holub
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Skyba +1 · Holub -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 77% — Strong (leans Holub)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Holub form (60%) is below what odds imply (77%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkyba 3.40 / Holub 1.30
Signal prob.23% / 77%
Edge (Holub)+4.4pp
Setka Cup · #13166227
Skyba3.40
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog31% won 25 of 80
Down 0–1, comes back13% 6 of 47
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 29
Holub1.30
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite58% won 97 of 166
Up 2–0, closes it98% 47 of 48
Up 1–0, closes it75% 70 of 94
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSkyba2wins
AwayHolub8wins
5 of 10 to a deciderHolub leads 8–2, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSkyba33.3%2 of 6
AwayHolub100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Skyba6Holub4n = 10Skyba took 6 of 10
S2Skyba1Holub9n = 10Holub took 9 of 10
S3Skyba1Holub9n = 10Holub took 9 of 10
S4Skyba4Holub3n = 7Skyba took 4 of 7
S5Skyba2Holub2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricSkybaHolubS − HBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match34.940.7−5.8per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkybaHolubBasisWin rate · lifetime98 / 241 vs 358 / 64940.7%55.2%98 / 241 vs 358 / 649Avg sets wonper match1.82.2per matchAvg pointsper match36.640.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HolubSkyba 3.40/Holub 1.30
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
76.7%
Holub · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Holub won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LSep 21 · 07:00A. Skyba3811751142M. Holub47611118113
LAug 14 · 09:05A. Skyba3711291142M. Holub45911113113
LAug 14 · 08:00A. Skyba34117971M. Holub4071111113
WJul 30 · 06:30A. Skyba46136115113M. Holub46111171162
LJun 29 · 10:00A. Skyba351011771M. Holub4212811113
LJun 22 · 07:00A. Skyba249690M. Holub331111113
LMay 28 · 08:44A. Skyba2484120M. Holub361111143
LMay 28 · 07:30A. Skyba31912100M. Holub371114123
WMay 19 · 09:03A. Skyba45116611113M. Holub4071111562
A. Skyba10
LSep 21 · 07:30P. Muller1.91711117123A. Skyba1.80116911102WSep 21 · 06:00A. Skyba2.251115113L. Krutina1.5751390LSep 16 · 16:33P. Fiser1.3391118113A. Skyba3.251171681LSep 16 · 15:30A. Skyba2.63841191P. Fiser1.4411119113WSep 16 · 14:30A. Skyba1.831111113V. Coubal1.836390WSep 16 · 13:30A. Skyba1.5711412113A. Akopyan2.258111051LSep 10 · 12:43J. Vrnak2.38119114113A. Skyba1.5351131132LSep 10 · 11:30T. Holomek1.83111811143A. Skyba1.83117119122WSep 10 · 11:00A. Skyba1.4471111113J. Vrnak2.63116771LSep 10 · 10:00A. Skyba1.57811731P. Muller2.2511911113
M. Holub10
LSep 21 · 08:00L. Krutina1.7312611113M. Holub2.001011371LSep 21 · 05:30P. Muller3.00911711133M. Holub1.36118115112WSep 18 · 09:13D. Sabuka1.91811681M. Holub1.8011611113WSep 18 · 07:30M. Holub1.40781111113J. Vrnak2.7511117992WSep 18 · 06:30M. Holub1.4091111123P. Muller2.751174101LSep 18 · 05:30M. Holub1.53713100D. Sabuka2.381115123WSep 14 · 13:03M. Holub1.806131111113F. Fryml1.9111159672WSep 14 · 12:00J. Jnr1.916101731M. Holub1.80111215113LSep 14 · 11:00F. Fryml2.2512913113M. Holub1.5710111191WSep 14 · 09:30D. Sabuka2.38101211582M. Holub1.531210611113
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