TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 21Finished
Patrik Muller
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
7111161197111210
Antonin Skyba
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:52 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeAntonin Skyba to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPatrik Muller above · Antonin Skyba below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 12-10
Point 95 set 5, 12-10 — our read held Antonin Skyba at 54.0%
95 points played in total.
H2H Patrik Muller 5–9 Antonin Skyba Patrik Muller has won 5 of their 14 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:52What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Skyba
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-9 in 14
Skyba
Wrong
gap of 4 in 14, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Muller 1219 vs Skyba 1221
Skyba
Wrong
both rated, 1 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Muller 20% vs Skyba 40%
Skyba
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Muller 40% vs Skyba 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Muller -1 · Skyba -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Skyba)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Skyba form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMuller 1.91 / Skyba 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Skyba)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13166538
Muller1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog38% won 18 of 47
Down 0–1, comes back17% 4 of 23
Down 0–2, comes back13% 2 of 16
Skyba1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite55% won 21 of 38
Up 2–0, closes it93% 13 of 14
Up 1–0, closes it68% 15 of 22
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMuller4wins
AwaySkyba6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderSkyba leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMuller40%2 of 5
AwaySkyba60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Muller5Skyba5n = 10split evenly
S2Muller3Skyba7n = 10Skyba took 7 of 10
S3Muller7Skyba3n = 10Muller took 7 of 10
S4Muller3Skyba5n = 8Skyba took 5 of 8
S5Muller2Skyba2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMullerSkybaM − SBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match41.741.0+0.7per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMullerSkybaBasisWin rate · lifetime71 / 158 vs 98 / 24144.9%40.7%71 / 158 vs 98 / 241Avg sets wonper match2.01.8per matchAvg pointsper match38.136.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SkybaMuller 1.91/Skyba 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Skyba · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Muller won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WSep 21 · 07:30P. Muller48711117123A. Skyba47116911102
WSep 10 · 10:00P. Muller4211911113A. Skyba29811731
LApr 13 · 12:29P. Muller46111081162A. Skyba50912117113
LApr 13 · 10:00P. Muller419131181A. Skyba4511158113
LApr 6 · 12:29P. Muller4412581182A. Skyba511011118113
WApr 6 · 11:30P. Muller331111113A. Skyba217680
LFeb 16 · 13:32P. Muller34951191A. Skyba4211119113
WFeb 16 · 12:00P. Muller539121110113A. Skyba46111071262
LJan 5 · 16:45P. Muller34791171A. Skyba3811115113
P. Muller10
LSep 21 · 06:30P. Muller2.75491281L. Krutina1.40111110113WSep 21 · 05:30P. Muller3.00911711133M. Holub1.36118115112LSep 18 · 08:44P. Muller1.4411118362J. Vrnak2.63851111113LSep 18 · 08:00P. Muller2.6313118932D. Sabuka1.441181111113LSep 18 · 06:30M. Holub1.4091111123P. Muller2.751174101WSep 18 · 06:00J. Vrnak2.751151011102P. Muller1.40911124123LSep 10 · 13:14P. Muller1.61911611112T. Holomek2.20113117133WSep 10 · 12:00P. Muller1.5312117113J. Vrnak2.381091151LSep 10 · 10:30T. Holomek2.1010101111113P. Muller1.6712127882WSep 10 · 10:00A. Skyba1.57811731P. Muller2.2511911113
A. Skyba10
LSep 21 · 07:00A. Skyba3.4011751142M. Holub1.30611118113WSep 21 · 06:00A. Skyba2.251115113L. Krutina1.5751390LSep 16 · 16:33P. Fiser1.3391118113A. Skyba3.251171681LSep 16 · 15:30A. Skyba2.63841191P. Fiser1.4411119113WSep 16 · 14:30A. Skyba1.831111113V. Coubal1.836390WSep 16 · 13:30A. Skyba1.5711412113A. Akopyan2.258111051LSep 10 · 12:43J. Vrnak2.38119114113A. Skyba1.5351131132LSep 10 · 11:30T. Holomek1.83111811143A. Skyba1.83117119122WSep 10 · 11:00A. Skyba1.4471111113J. Vrnak2.63116771LSep 10 · 10:00A. Skyba1.57811731P. Muller2.2511911113
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