TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Filip Fryml vs Martin Holub 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 23Finished
Filip Fryml
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
511118113115––
Martin Holub
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:08 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMartin Holub to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingFilip Fryml above · Martin Holub below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-3
Set 4 · 11-5
Point 65 set 4, 11-5 — our read held Martin Holub at 54.0%
65 points played in total.
H2H Filip Fryml 10–12 Martin Holub Filip Fryml has won 10 of their 22 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:08What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Holub
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-12 in 22
Holub
Wrong
gap of 2 in 22, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Fryml 1361 vs Holub 1384
Holub
Wrong
both rated, 23 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Fryml 80% vs Holub 60%
Fryml
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Fryml 60% vs Holub 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Fryml -1 · Holub +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Fryml) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Fryml form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFryml 1.91 / Holub 1.80
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Fryml)+5.5pp
Setka Cup · #13180021
Fryml1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 9 days ago (Sep 14) · back after a break
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog47% won 15 of 32
Down 0–1, comes back29% 4 of 14
Down 0–2, comes back18% 2 of 11
Holub1.80
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Sep 21)
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite58% won 96 of 166
Up 2–0, closes it98% 47 of 48
Up 1–0, closes it73% 68 of 93
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeFryml3wins
AwayHolub7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderHolub leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeFryml33.3%2 of 6
AwayHolub75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Fryml6Holub4n = 10Fryml took 6 of 10
S2Fryml4Holub6n = 10Holub took 6 of 10
S3Fryml2Holub8n = 10Holub took 8 of 10
S4Fryml3Holub4n = 7Holub took 4 of 7
S5Fryml1Holub2n = 3Holub took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricFrymlHolubF − HBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match37.840.3−2.5per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFrymlHolubBasisWin rate · lifetime77 / 150 vs 359 / 65051.3%55.2%77 / 150 vs 359 / 650Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.140.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FrymlFryml 1.91/Holub 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Fryml · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Fryml won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WSep 23 · 06:00F. Fryml3851111113M. Holub27118351
LSep 14 · 13:03F. Fryml4811159672M. Holub526131111113
WSep 14 · 11:00F. Fryml4512913113M. Holub4110111191
LSep 9 · 07:00F. Fryml391179121M. Holub4151111143
LAug 27 · 09:03F. Fryml215790M. Holub331111113
LAug 27 · 06:30F. Fryml48111061292M. Holub528121110113
WAug 12 · 06:30F. Fryml42111163113M. Holub4679111182
LJun 19 · 08:39F. Fryml2310580M. Holub341211113
LMay 28 · 06:30F. Fryml361171081M. Holub3731112113
F. Fryml10
LSep 14 · 13:03M. Holub1.806131111113F. Fryml1.9111159672WSep 14 · 11:30D. Sabuka1.447101191F. Fryml2.6311127113WSep 14 · 11:00F. Fryml2.2512913113M. Holub1.5710111191WSep 14 · 10:00F. Fryml1.9111128113J. Jnr1.805101171WSep 9 · 08:38A. Akopyan3.2571291132F. Fryml1.331110115113LSep 9 · 07:30L. Krutina2.0091111113F. Fryml1.73115481LSep 9 · 07:00F. Fryml2.201179121M. Holub1.6151111143WSep 9 · 06:00F. Fryml1.611111113A. Akopyan2.207620LAug 27 · 09:03F. Fryml1.835790M. Holub1.831111113WAug 27 · 08:00F. Fryml1.73101111113M. Cmil2.00127981
M. Holub10
WSep 23 · 06:30L. Krutina1.73811981M. Holub2.0011911113WSep 21 · 08:28M. Holub1.338111111113A. Skyba3.2511913562LSep 21 · 08:00L. Krutina1.7312611113M. Holub2.001011371WSep 21 · 07:00A. Skyba3.4011751142M. Holub1.30611118113LSep 21 · 05:30P. Muller3.00911711133M. Holub1.36118115112WSep 18 · 09:13D. Sabuka1.91811681M. Holub1.8011611113WSep 14 · 13:03M. Holub1.806131111113F. Fryml1.9111159672LSep 14 · 11:00F. Fryml2.2512913113M. Holub1.5710111191WSep 9 · 07:00F. Fryml2.201179121M. Holub1.6151111143WAug 27 · 09:03F. Fryml1.835790M. Holub1.831111113
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