TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Marian Melisek vs David Sabuka 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 23Finished
Marian Melisek
Home
1.36
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
117116611116––
David Sabuka
Away
3.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:48 and never touched — 70.0% is still 70.0%
Graded at full timeMarian Melisek to win
70.0%
70.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMarian Melisek above · David Sabuka below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 69 set 4, 11-6 — our read held Marian Melisek at 70.0%
69 points played in total.
H2H Marian Melisek 5–1 David Sabuka David Sabuka has won 1 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:48What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Melisek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-1 in 6
Melisek
Correct
gap of 4 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Melisek 1381 vs Sabuka 1343
Melisek
Correct
both rated, 39 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Melisek 60% vs Sabuka 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Melisek 50% vs Sabuka 70%
Sabuka
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Melisek +1 · Sabuka -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% — Strong (leans Melisek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sabuka form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (33%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMelisek 1.36 / Sabuka 3.00
Signal prob.70% / 30%
Edge (Melisek)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13179975
Melisek1.36
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite61% won 40 of 66
Up 2–0, closes it83% 24 of 29
Up 1–0, closes it79% 33 of 42
Sabuka3.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog28% won 26 of 92
Down 0–1, comes back14% 9 of 65
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 38
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeMelisek5wins
AwaySabuka1wins
Melisek leads 5–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMelisek80%4 of 5
AwaySabukan = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Melisek5Sabuka1n = 6Melisek took 5 of 6
S2Melisek5Sabuka1n = 6Melisek took 5 of 6
S3Melisek3Sabuka3n = 6split evenly
S4Melisek3Sabuka1n = 4Melisek took 3 of 4
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home233%
3–1Four sets, home350%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away117%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricMelisekSabukaM − SBasisWins51+4in 6 meetingsFirst set51+4of 6Avg pointsper match38.828.5+10.3per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMelisekSabukaBasisWin rate · lifetime223 / 463 vs 246 / 51448.2%47.9%223 / 463 vs 246 / 514Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.838.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MelisekMelisek 1.36/Sabuka 3.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
70%
Melisek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Melisek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WJul 23 · 11:00M. Melisek4211119113D. Sabuka24251161
WJul 22 · 12:33M. Melisek4211119113D. Sabuka28491141
WJul 22 · 10:30M. Melisek331111113D. Sabuka249960
WMay 11 · 11:30M. Melisek331111113D. Sabuka188460
WMay 4 · 13:04M. Melisek46131111113D. Sabuka38159861
LMay 4 · 12:00M. Melisek371191071D. Sabuka3951112113
M. Melisek10
WSep 23 · 13:03M. Melisek1.6711117113J. Blazek2.10891191WSep 23 · 10:30R. Slunecko1.57711871M. Melisek2.2511811113LSep 23 · 10:00J. Blazek2.25511117113M. Melisek1.5711791132WSep 21 · 16:58M. Melisek2.501111113K. Polak1.503890LSep 21 · 16:00K. Polak1.611114123M. Melisek2.20512100WSep 21 · 15:00P. Fiser1.915440M. Melisek1.801111113LSep 21 · 13:30E. Ondracek1.611111113M. Melisek2.208860WSep 19 · 16:39M. Melisek1.401111103J. Seeman2.758860WSep 19 · 16:00M. Melisek1.83811611113L. Krutina1.8311211682LSep 19 · 14:30J. Seeman3.2511118113M. Melisek1.33291171
D. Sabuka10
LSep 23 · 12:33D. Sabuka1.5071111862R. Slunecko2.50118711113LSep 23 · 11:00J. Blazek1.801213113D. Sabuka1.91101180WSep 23 · 09:30R. Slunecko2.501121191D. Sabuka1.5013119113LSep 20 · 21:04M. Cmil1.801111123D. Sabuka1.9189100WSep 20 · 19:30D. Sabuka1.33614118113J. Mares3.25111281192WSep 20 · 18:30D. Sabuka2.009111111113M. Cmil1.7311413972WSep 20 · 17:30D. Sabuka1.3011117113A. Akopyan3.40981141LSep 18 · 09:13D. Sabuka1.91811681M. Holub1.8011611113WSep 18 · 08:00P. Muller2.6313118932D. Sabuka1.441181111113WSep 18 · 07:00J. Vrnak3.501141081D. Sabuka1.2841112113
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.