TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 20Finished
Marcel Cmil
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1181191210––––
David Sabuka
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
How it is goingMarcel Cmil above · David Sabuka below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 12-10
Point 61 set 3, 12-10
61 points played in total.
H2H Marcel Cmil 5–1 David Sabuka David Sabuka has won 1 of their 6 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Sabuka beat Cmil 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Cmil)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sabuka form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCmil 1.80 / Sabuka 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Cmil)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13166649
Cmil1.80
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite58% won 79 of 136
Up 2–0, closes it90% 35 of 39
Up 1–0, closes it75% 52 of 69
Sabuka1.91
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog27% won 25 of 93
Down 0–1, comes back12% 8 of 66
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 38
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeCmil5wins
AwaySabuka1wins
5 of 6 to a deciderCmil leads 5–1, and 5 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCmil75%3 of 4
AwaySabukan = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cmil4Sabuka2n = 6Cmil took 4 of 6
S2Cmil3Sabuka3n = 6split evenly
S3Cmil3Sabuka3n = 6split evenly
S4Cmil3Sabuka3n = 6split evenly
S5Cmil4Sabuka1n = 5Cmil took 4 of 5
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home117%
3–2Decider, home467%
2–3Decider, away117%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricCmilSabukaC − SBasisWins51+4in 6 meetingsFirst set42+2of 6Avg pointsper match46.044.5+1.5per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCmilSabukaBasisWin rate · lifetime364 / 667 vs 246 / 51654.6%47.7%364 / 667 vs 246 / 516Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.938.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CmilCmil 1.80/Sabuka 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Cmil · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Cmil won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LSep 20 · 18:30M. Cmil4411413972D. Sabuka539111111113
WSep 1 · 08:00M. Cmil511111114143D. Sabuka51613911122
WAug 20 · 09:03M. Cmil41511113113D. Sabuka4011681142
WAug 20 · 06:00M. Cmil3811123123D. Sabuka3761011101
WJul 26 · 19:00M. Cmil47711711113D. Sabuka4011711742
WJul 20 · 07:30M. Cmil5511121011113D. Sabuka4691412562
M. Cmil10
WSep 20 · 20:00M. Cmil1.611211113A. Akopyan2.2010890LSep 20 · 18:30D. Sabuka2.009111111113M. Cmil1.7311413972WSep 20 · 18:00J. Mares3.40451591M. Cmil1.30111113113WSep 19 · 13:15J. Jnr1.80131111592M. Cmil1.90156911113WSep 19 · 11:30M. Cmil2.0012811113L. Boura1.731011651WSep 19 · 10:30M. Cmil1.61116511113P. Moulis2.2091111882LSep 19 · 09:30M. Cmil1.83119791J. Jnr1.8351111113LSep 16 · 09:03M. Cmil1.9191191192L. Krutina1.80119117113WSep 16 · 08:00L. Krutina1.8012113852M. Cmil1.911061111113WSep 16 · 07:00P. Cizek2.3891112862M. Cmil1.531171011113
D. Sabuka10
WSep 20 · 19:30D. Sabuka1.33614118113J. Mares3.25111281192WSep 20 · 18:30D. Sabuka2.009111111113M. Cmil1.7311413972WSep 20 · 17:30D. Sabuka1.3011117113A. Akopyan3.40981141LSep 18 · 09:13D. Sabuka1.91811681M. Holub1.8011611113WSep 18 · 08:00P. Muller2.6313118932D. Sabuka1.441181111113WSep 18 · 07:00J. Vrnak3.501141081D. Sabuka1.2841112113WSep 18 · 05:30M. Holub1.53713100D. Sabuka2.381115123WSep 14 · 12:33J. Jnr1.737119101D. Sabuka2.0011411123LSep 14 · 11:30D. Sabuka1.447101191F. Fryml2.6311127113WSep 14 · 10:30D. Sabuka2.20111212113J. Jnr1.6113101091
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