TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Zdenek Chovancik vs Lukas Zustina 2-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 24Finished
Zdenek Chovancik
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
12101171012911811
Lukas Zustina
Away
2.10
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:51 and never touched — 56.9% is still 56.9%
Graded at full timeZdenek Chovancik to win
56.9%
56.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingZdenek Chovancik above · Lukas Zustina below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 101 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Zdenek Chovancik at 56.9%
101 points played in total.
H2H Zdenek Chovancik 1–0 Lukas Zustina Lukas Zustina has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Chovancik beat Zustina 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:51What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Chovancik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Chovancik 1328 vs Zustina 1295
Chovancik
Wrong
both rated, 34 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chovancik 60% vs Zustina 40%
Chovancik
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chovancik 50% vs Zustina 30%
Chovancik
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Chovancik +3 · Zustina +2
Chovancik
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Chovancik) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChovancik 1.67 / Zustina 2.10
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Chovancik)+2.8pp
TT Cup · #13189113
Chovancik1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Zustina2.10
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog52% won 13 of 25
Down 0–1, comes back29% 4 of 14
Down 0–2, comes back13% 1 of 8
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeChovancik1wins
AwayZustina0wins
Chovancik leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricChovancikZustinaC − ZBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match35.020.0+15.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChovancikZustinaBasisWin rate · lifetime36 / 88 vs 52 / 11340.9%46%36 / 88 vs 52 / 113Avg sets wonper match1.81.8per matchAvg pointsper match37.236.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChovancikChovancik 1.67/Zustina 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.6%
Chovancik · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Zustina won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WSep 24 · 10:15Z. Chovancik351113113L. Zustina2041150
Z. Chovancik10
WSep 24 · 12:15Z. Chovancik1.83111166113R. Sedivy1.8376111192WSep 24 · 10:45P. Sturma1.671530Z. Chovancik2.101111113WSep 24 · 10:15L. Zustina1.8041150Z. Chovancik1.911113113LSep 18 · 12:40L. Snr1.2512117113Z. Chovancik3.751081161LSep 18 · 11:40J. Jnr1.671111113Z. Chovancik2.109870LSep 18 · 11:10P. Sturma2.00111152113Z. Chovancik1.7377111162LSep 18 · 10:10Z. Chovancik2.507570L. Snr1.501111113LSep 11 · 13:20Z. Chovancik1.771970J. Sindler1.871111113WSep 11 · 12:15J. Sindler1.8011660Z. Chovancik1.911311113WSep 11 · 11:15Z. Chovancik1.837111110113P. Sturma1.8311961272
L. Zustina10
LSep 24 · 14:45M. Dolezal1.8311116113L. Zustina1.83471191LSep 24 · 14:15P. Sturma2.0081211143L. Zustina1.7311107121WSep 24 · 11:45P. Sturma1.911187101L. Zustina1.8061111123WSep 24 · 11:15R. Sedivy3.004830L. Zustina1.361111113LSep 24 · 10:15L. Zustina1.8041150Z. Chovancik1.911113113LSep 16 · 12:48L. Jr1.531111113L. Zustina2.388670LSep 16 · 11:45M. Lorenc2.251111113L. Zustina1.577790LSep 16 · 11:15L. Jr1.73111111113L. Zustina2.00139571LSep 16 · 10:15L. Zustina2.25861191J. Sindler1.5711119113LSep 16 · 08:50L. Snr1.571111113L. Zustina2.253770
Upcoming Matches
Z. Chovancik
Nothing scheduled
L. Zustina
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