TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Michal Snizek vs Jaroslav Puk 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 24Finished
Michal Snizek
Home
3.50
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
911117811611––
Jaroslav Puk
Away
1.29
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:12 and never touched — 73.9% is still 73.9%
Graded at full timeJaroslav Puk to win
73.9%
73.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Snizek above · Jaroslav Puk below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 74 set 4, 6-11 — our read held Jaroslav Puk at 73.9%
74 points played in total.
H2H Michal Snizek 0–5 Jaroslav Puk Michal Snizek has won 0 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:12What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.28 (73%)
Puk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-5 in 5
Puk
Correct
gap of 5 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Snizek 1373 vs Puk 1404
Puk
Correct
both rated, 31 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Snizek 60% vs Puk 80%
Puk
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Snizek 50% vs Puk 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Snizek +2 · Puk +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 75% — Strong (leans Puk) · live re-read · sealed at 74% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Snizek form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (29%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSnizek 3.50 / Puk 1.28
Signal prob.25% / 75%
Edge (Puk)+2.0pp
Setka Cup · #13185841
Snizek3.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog44% won 19 of 43
Down 0–1, comes back14% 3 of 21
Down 0–2, comes back9% 1 of 11
Puk1.28
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite53% won 16 of 30
Up 2–0, closes it89% 8 of 9
Up 1–0, closes it74% 14 of 19
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeSnizek0wins
AwayPuk5wins
Puk leads 5–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSnizekn = 0, below the 3 needed
AwayPuk100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Snizek0Puk5n = 5Puk took 5 of 5
S2Snizek2Puk3n = 5Puk took 3 of 5
S3Snizek1Puk4n = 5Puk took 4 of 5
S4Snizek0Puk3n = 3Puk took 3 of 3
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away360%
0–3Straight, away240%
These 5 meetings
MetricSnizekPukS − PBasisWins05−5in 5 meetingsFirst set05−5of 5Avg pointsper match29.638.6−9.0per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSnizekPukBasisWin rate · lifetime179 / 337 vs 147 / 31053.1%47.4%179 / 337 vs 147 / 310Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.838.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PukSnizek 3.50/Puk 1.28
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
75.1%
Puk · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Puk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LSep 24 · 06:30M. Snizek34911861J. Puk4011711113
LSep 11 · 06:30M. Snizek205960J. Puk331111113
LSep 4 · 06:30M. Snizek2210660J. Puk341211113
LMar 18 · 07:30M. Snizek3810101171J. Puk4112126113
LMar 13 · 07:15M. Snizek344131071J. Puk45111112113
M. Snizek10
WSep 24 · 07:30M. Snizek2.10111168133V. Kral1.67951111112WSep 24 · 05:30M. Snizek1.5011511113P. Moulis2.50211161WSep 13 · 15:30M. Snizek1.9111117103M. Holub1.80781171LSep 13 · 14:30M. Snizek1.61116101162L. Krutina2.20811125103LSep 13 · 13:30M. Snizek2.20137641J. Seeman1.6111111193WSep 11 · 08:49P. Moulis2.2561231192M. Snizek1.571110119113LSep 11 · 07:30M. Snizek2.20713731F. Husek1.61111111113LSep 11 · 06:30M. Snizek3.005960J. Puk1.361111113WSep 11 · 05:30M. Snizek1.73811511113P. Moulis2.0011511862WSep 4 · 08:53P. Moulis2.3831111892M. Snizek1.53118611113
J. Puk10
WSep 24 · 06:00V. Kral1.83751191J. Puk1.8311118113LSep 11 · 09:19J. Puk1.91101141162F. Husek1.80129114113WSep 11 · 08:00J. Puk1.571310128133P. Moulis2.2511121011112WSep 11 · 06:30M. Snizek3.005960J. Puk1.361111113WSep 11 · 06:00F. Husek1.619101191J. Puk2.2011124113LSep 8 · 09:03J. Puk2.00691171A. Dvoracek1.7311117113WSep 8 · 08:00A. Dvoracek1.441012481J. Puk2.63121011113LSep 8 · 07:00J. Mejzlik1.67113114113J. Puk2.1071191172LSep 8 · 05:30O. Plyska1.441113113J. Puk2.6351160WSep 4 · 09:23J. Puk1.83119116133M. Vorel1.83611711112
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