TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Andrii Kurtenko vs Eduard Populovskyi 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 24Finished
Andrii Kurtenko
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
114711911116911
Eduard Populovskyi
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 8Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 8
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:07 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeAndrii Kurtenko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingAndrii Kurtenko above · Eduard Populovskyi below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 90 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Andrii Kurtenko at 54.0%
90 points played in total.
H2H Andrii Kurtenko 16–12 Eduard Populovskyi Eduard Populovskyi has won 12 of their 28 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 18:07What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Kurtenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
16-12 in 28
Kurtenko
Wrong
gap of 4 in 28, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kurtenko 1450 vs Populovskyi 1400
Kurtenko
Wrong
both rated, 50 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kurtenko 60% vs Populovskyi 0%
Kurtenko
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kurtenko 60% vs Populovskyi 20%
Kurtenko
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kurtenko -1 · Populovskyi -8
Populovskyi
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kurtenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Populovskyi form (0%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKurtenko 1.80 / Populovskyi 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kurtenko)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13185304
Kurtenko1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Sep 22)
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite60% won 146 of 243
Up 2–0, closes it91% 82 of 90
Up 1–0, closes it80% 111 of 139
Populovskyi1.91
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 3 days ago (Sep 21)
Lost last 8
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog32% won 46 of 142
Down 0–1, comes back21% 18 of 88
Down 0–2, comes back10% 6 of 62
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKurtenko6wins
AwayPopulovskyi4wins
1 of 10 to a deciderKurtenko leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKurtenko83.3%5 of 6
AwayPopulovskyi75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kurtenko6Populovskyi4n = 10Kurtenko took 6 of 10
S2Kurtenko4Populovskyi6n = 10Populovskyi took 6 of 10
S3Kurtenko6Populovskyi4n = 10Kurtenko took 6 of 10
S4Kurtenko4Populovskyi4n = 8split evenly
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKurtenkoPopulovskyiK − PBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match39.235.7+3.5per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKurtenkoPopulovskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime349 / 664 vs 338 / 69352.6%48.8%349 / 664 vs 338 / 693Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.036.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KurtenkoKurtenko 1.80/Populovskyi 1.91
Miss
What we said
54%
Kurtenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Populovskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 21 · 07:20A. Kurtenko4211911113E. Populovskyi32611691
LSep 20 · 07:50A. Kurtenko4010119101E. Populovskyi4412911123
WSep 15 · 10:35A. Kurtenko44111011123E. Populovskyi356127101
LSep 13 · 12:50A. Kurtenko29101090E. Populovskyi351212113
WSep 12 · 13:30A. Kurtenko4271311113E. Populovskyi351111851
WSep 3 · 06:30A. Kurtenko351111133E. Populovskyi2458110
WSep 2 · 09:05A. Kurtenko47111177113E. Populovskyi4286111162
LAug 27 · 11:20A. Kurtenko361181071E. Populovskyi3731112113
LAug 23 · 07:50A. Kurtenko359101151E. Populovskyi4311129113
WAug 22 · 19:00A. Kurtenko4211911113E. Populovskyi30911551
A. Kurtenko10
WSep 24 · 06:35A. Kurtenko2.0011711113S. Solomko1.73911981LSep 22 · 12:05A. Kurtenko3.00511341F. Voinarovskyi1.3611911113WSep 22 · 10:05I. Emets1.676910A. Kurtenko2.101111113WSep 22 · 08:05O. Osadchyi1.678670A. Kurtenko2.101111113LSep 22 · 07:05A. Kurtenko1.801041141A. Kovalenko1.9112117113WSep 22 · 06:05O. Leonenko2.00311791A. Kurtenko1.7311311113WSep 21 · 11:50A. Kurtenko1.8011115113O. Leonenko1.91881131LSep 21 · 10:20A. Kurtenko3.0031271162S. Hryhorenko1.361110119113LSep 21 · 08:50A. Kurtenko2.25911141392O. Osadchyi1.571161611113WSep 21 · 07:20A. Kurtenko1.9111911113E. Populovskyi1.80611691
E. Populovskyi10
LSep 21 · 12:50O. Osadchyi1.28115117113E. Populovskyi3.5071151182LSep 21 · 11:20E. Populovskyi3.501110691S. Solomko1.2881211113LSep 21 · 09:20S. Hryhorenko1.9111101111113E. Populovskyi1.8081213782LSep 21 · 07:20A. Kurtenko1.9111911113E. Populovskyi1.80611691LSep 21 · 06:20O. Leonenko2.2571111113E. Populovskyi1.57115881LSep 20 · 12:20D. Khairov1.831111113E. Populovskyi1.839340LSep 20 · 11:20S. Solomko1.229111110123E. Populovskyi4.00119812102LSep 20 · 09:50O. Osadchyi1.331111113E. Populovskyi3.259330WSep 20 · 07:50A. Kurtenko1.8010119101E. Populovskyi1.9112911123WSep 20 · 05:50A. Kotiash1.917511101E. Populovskyi1.8011119123
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