TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Adam Kanak vs Dalibor Velky Jr 2-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 23Finished
Adam Kanak
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1186114111210811
Dalibor Velky Jr
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:41 and never touched — 54.2% is still 54.2%
Graded at full timeAdam Kanak to win
54.2%
54.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingAdam Kanak above · Dalibor Velky Jr below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 12-10
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 92 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Adam Kanak at 54.2%
92 points played in total.
H2H Adam Kanak 3–2 Dalibor Velky Jr Dalibor Velky Jr has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Kanak beat Jr 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:41What took a side1 for · 1 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Kanak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-2 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kanak 1547 vs Jr 1565
Jr
Correct
both rated, 18 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kanak 40% vs Jr 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kanak 40% vs Jr 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kanak -2 · Jr +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kanak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jr form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKanak 1.80 / Jr 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kanak)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #13184855
Kanak1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite57% won 35 of 62
Up 2–0, closes it85% 11 of 13
Up 1–0, closes it78% 21 of 27
Jr1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog49% won 112 of 228
Down 0–1, comes back26% 28 of 109
Down 0–2, comes back8% 4 of 51
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeKanak3wins
AwayJr2wins
2 of 5 to a deciderKanak leads 3–2, and 2 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKanakn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayJr50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kanak1Jr4n = 5Jr took 4 of 5
S2Kanak3Jr2n = 5Kanak took 3 of 5
S3Kanak3Jr2n = 5Kanak took 3 of 5
S4Kanak1Jr3n = 4Jr took 3 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home240%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away120%
These 5 meetings
MetricKanakJrK − JBasisWins32+1in 5 meetingsFirst set14−3of 5Avg pointsper match38.841.8−3.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKanakJrBasisWin rate · lifetime75 / 133 vs 275 / 55456.4%49.6%75 / 133 vs 275 / 554Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.239.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KanakKanak 1.80/Jr 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Kanak · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Jr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WSep 23 · 13:45A. Kanak521011118123D. Jr48127811102
WSep 18 · 20:10A. Kanak46711114133D. Jr50119811112
LSep 12 · 12:10A. Kanak2578100D. Jr341111123
WAug 27 · 05:45A. Kanak4211911113D. Jr34711791
LAug 24 · 17:40A. Kanak29812271D. Jr43111011113
A. Kanak10
LSep 23 · 16:15K. Kleprlik1.831211113A. Kanak1.8310680LSep 23 · 15:15A. Kanak2.751371211142B. Mrowetz1.401111148163WSep 23 · 13:45D. Jr1.80127811102A. Kanak1.911011118123LSep 21 · 21:13A. Kanak1.679880E. Precek2.101111113WSep 21 · 19:45E. Precek2.0051161172A. Kanak1.73119118113LSep 21 · 19:15D. Branny2.501111113A. Kanak1.507960WSep 21 · 18:15A. Kanak2.001191011113P. Vinansky1.7391112472WSep 21 · 16:40A. Kanak2.1511312113D. Skulina1.639111041LSep 21 · 16:15B. Mrowetz1.831211113A. Kanak1.8310450LSep 21 · 15:15A. Kanak2.0047111192J. Krupnik1.73111179113
D. Jr10
WSep 23 · 15:45D. Jr2.25571316143B. Mrowetz1.5711111114122LSep 23 · 14:45D. Jr2.38111188102K. Kleprlik1.53991111123LSep 23 · 13:45D. Jr1.80127811102A. Kanak1.911011118123LSep 22 · 13:13T. Krenek1.50771111113D. Jr2.5011116782WSep 22 · 12:15D. Pawlik2.009790D. Jr1.731111113LSep 22 · 11:15D. Jr2.5011581182T. Krenek1.50911117113WSep 22 · 09:45J. Skvrna1.501191171D. Jr2.5013116113LSep 18 · 20:45D. Jr2.208580K. Kleprlik1.611111113LSep 18 · 20:10A. Kanak2.20711114133D. Jr1.61119811112WSep 18 · 19:10D. Jr2.631011811113K. Kleprlik1.4412511592
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