TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Pavel Berdych vs Jan Framberk 2-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 22Finished
Pavel Berdych
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
6117111181181113
Jan Framberk
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:57 and never touched — 57.1% is still 57.1%
Graded at full timePavel Berdych to win
57.1%
57.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPavel Berdych above · Jan Framberk below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 11-13
Point 97 set 5, 11-13 — our read held Pavel Berdych at 57.1%
97 points played in total.
H2H Pavel Berdych 2–1 Jan Framberk Jan Framberk has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Berdych beat Framberk 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:57What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Framberk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-1 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Berdych 1281 vs Framberk 1341
Framberk
Correct
both rated, 60 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Berdych 40% vs Framberk 20%
Berdych
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Berdych 50% vs Framberk 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Berdych -1 · Framberk +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Framberk) · live re-read · sealed at 43% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Framberk form (20%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBerdych 1.83 / Framberk 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Framberk)+4.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13179605
Berdych1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Framberk1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeBerdych2wins
AwayFramberk1wins
2 of 3 to a deciderBerdych leads 2–1, and 2 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Berdych2Framberk1n = 3Berdych took 2 of 3
S2Berdych2Framberk1n = 3Berdych took 2 of 3
S3Berdych2Framberk1n = 3Berdych took 2 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home133%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home133%
2–3Decider, away133%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricBerdychFramberkB − FBasisWins21+1in 3 meetingsFirst set21+1of 3Avg pointsper match43.738.3+5.4per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBerdychFramberkBasisWin rate · lifetime213 / 441 vs 84 / 15848.3%53.2%213 / 441 vs 84 / 158Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.537.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FramberkBerdych 1.83/Framberk 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Framberk · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Framberk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WSep 22 · 15:30P. Berdych529111011113J. Framberk4811812982
WAug 27 · 20:58P. Berdych331111113J. Framberk167450
LAug 27 · 18:30P. Berdych46111311832J. Framberk51615811113
P. Berdych10
LSep 22 · 16:00P. Berdych2.1081111592Z. Drabek1.67115711113WSep 22 · 15:30J. Framberk1.8011812982P. Berdych1.919111011113LSep 22 · 14:00P. Berdych1.73781331V. Sr2.00111111113WSep 20 · 02:59P. Berdych1.611111123L. Havrda2.2065100LSep 20 · 02:30P. Berdych2.00111367112M. Novotny1.738111111133WSep 20 · 01:30J. Pelikan1.28611691P. Berdych3.5011411113LSep 20 · 24:00P. Berdych1.50613111172L. Havrda2.50111579113WSep 19 · 23:00J. Grohsgott2.635660P. Berdych1.441111113WSep 19 · 13:12V. Sr1.801181081P. Berdych1.9151112113LSep 19 · 12:00M. Stefek1.33121011113P. Berdych3.251012861
J. Framberk10
WSep 22 · 16:30V. Sr2.206840J. Framberk1.611111113LSep 22 · 15:30J. Framberk1.8011812982P. Berdych1.919111011113LSep 22 · 14:30Z. Drabek1.831111123J. Framberk1.8338100LSep 17 · 02:58M. Novak1.577111111114J. Framberk2.251149471LSep 17 · 02:00J. Framberk2.255840M. Stefek1.571111113WSep 17 · 01:00J. Framberk1.91811911113R. Hasmanda1.8011411592LSep 17 · 24:00M. Novak1.6191111113J. Framberk2.20116281WSep 16 · 22:30T. Regner1.91138941J. Framberk1.80111111113LSep 14 · 21:30J. Framberk1.3015760M. Barta3.401711113WSep 14 · 20:30M. Novotny2.20981141J. Framberk1.6111117113
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