TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Jiri Dedek vs Jan Trefny 2-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 24Finished
Jiri Dedek
Home
2.50
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
511119911117711
Jan Trefny
Away
1.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:21 and never touched — 65.7% is still 65.7%
Graded at full timeJan Trefny to win
65.7%
65.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJiri Dedek above · Jan Trefny below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 92 set 5, 7-11 — our read held Jan Trefny at 65.7%
92 points played in total.
H2H Jiri Dedek 6–6 Jan Trefny Dead even across their 12 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:21What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Trefny
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-6 in 12
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dedek 1455 vs Trefny 1572
Trefny
Correct
both rated, 117 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dedek 40% vs Trefny 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dedek 40% vs Trefny 60%
Trefny
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Dedek -2 · Trefny -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Trefny) · live re-read · sealed at 66% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Trefny form (40%) is below what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDedek 2.50 / Trefny 1.50
Signal prob.36% / 64%
Edge (Trefny)+1.2pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13178927
Dedek2.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog39% won 78 of 198
Down 0–1, comes back22% 27 of 124
Down 0–2, comes back8% 6 of 72
Trefny1.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite51% won 28 of 55
Up 2–0, closes it100% 11 of 11
Up 1–0, closes it79% 19 of 24
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDedek5wins
AwayTrefny5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDedek75%3 of 4
AwayTrefny66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dedek4Trefny6n = 10Trefny took 6 of 10
S2Dedek6Trefny4n = 10Dedek took 6 of 10
S3Dedek5Trefny5n = 10split evenly
S4Dedek2Trefny2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricDedekTrefnyD − TBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match34.633.1+1.5per matchSweeps3303–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDedekTrefnyBasisWin rate · lifetime486 / 941 vs 65 / 12751.7%51.2%486 / 941 vs 65 / 127Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.635.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TrefnyDedek 2.50/Trefny 1.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63.7%
Trefny · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Trefny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 6 · 21:28J. Dedek2491050J. Trefny341112113
LSep 6 · 18:30J. Dedek2459100J. Trefny341111123
WSep 6 · 17:29J. Dedek521211711113J. Trefny4414711842
LSep 6 · 14:00J. Dedek2788110J. Trefny351111133
LSep 4 · 01:30J. Dedek33117781J. Trefny3741111113
WAug 31 · 14:30J. Dedek331111113J. Trefny237880
LAug 18 · 12:30J. Dedek4161111762J. Trefny43116411113
WAug 9 · 02:30J. Dedek351111133J. Trefny2898110
WAug 3 · 15:00J. Dedek331111113J. Trefny169160
WJul 30 · 24:00J. Dedek44111111113J. Trefny37136991
J. Dedek10
LSep 24 · 24:30K. Darin2.00111196113J. Dedek1.7388111162LSep 23 · 23:30J. Prokupek1.9111911113J. Dedek1.80911651WSep 23 · 22:30J. Dedek1.83111433113P. Klusacek1.83912111172WSep 21 · 12:58J. Dedek1.7371111113K. Darin2.00112991LSep 21 · 12:30J. Dedek1.73981121L. Babicka2.0011119113LSep 21 · 11:00J. Dedek2.00531111142J. Plachy1.73111197163WSep 21 · 10:00K. Darin1.738550J. Dedek2.001111113LSep 20 · 02:59K. Darin1.8011115113J. Dedek1.91611191LSep 20 · 02:30K. Darin2.001111113J. Dedek1.736880WSep 20 · 01:00Y. Holovatiuk2.20111191292J. Dedek1.61441114113
J. Trefny10
LSep 24 · 02:30J. Trefny1.67101060J. Prokupek2.101212113LSep 24 · 24:00J. Trefny1.57129111192P. Klusacek2.251011213113WSep 23 · 23:00K. Darin2.6311119432J. Trefny1.44491111113LSep 23 · 17:00V. Cermak1.501111113J. Trefny2.505430WSep 23 · 16:00J. Trefny1.9111114113M. Sobisek1.80671181LSep 23 · 15:30D. Tuma1.73101111113J. Trefny2.00128671LSep 23 · 14:00J. Trefny1.851420V. Cermak1.851111113WSep 20 · 03:29J. Trefny2.251111113D. Kouble1.578950WSep 20 · 02:00J. Trefny1.7311411143J. Prokupek2.009117121WSep 20 · 01:00J. Trefny1.9111116113R. Pavelka1.80481141
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