TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Radim Pavelka vs Jiri Plachy 3-2 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 23Finished
Radim Pavelka
Home
1.62
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
4111191311911118
Jiri Plachy
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:24 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeRadim Pavelka to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRadim Pavelka above · Jiri Plachy below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 13-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 98 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Radim Pavelka at 54.0%
98 points played in total.
H2H Radim Pavelka 42–33 Jiri Plachy Jiri Plachy has won 33 of their 75 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:24What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Pavelka
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
42-33 in 75
Pavelka
Correct
gap of 9 in 75, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pavelka 1564 vs Plachy 1529
Pavelka
Correct
both rated, 34 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pavelka 60% vs Plachy 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pavelka 60% vs Plachy 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Pavelka -1 · Plachy +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Pavelka) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Plachy form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPavelka 1.61 / Plachy 2.20
Signal prob.59% / 42%
Edge (Pavelka)+0.8pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13177482
Pavelka1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite62% won 92 of 148
Up 2–0, closes it93% 40 of 43
Up 1–0, closes it77% 64 of 83
Plachy2.20
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog40% won 138 of 343
Down 0–1, comes back21% 42 of 198
Down 0–2, comes back6% 6 of 109
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePavelka6wins
AwayPlachy4wins
1 of 10 to a deciderPavelka leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePavelka66.7%6 of 9
AwayPlachyn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pavelka9Plachy1n = 10Pavelka took 9 of 10
S2Pavelka3Plachy7n = 10Plachy took 7 of 10
S3Pavelka5Plachy5n = 10split evenly
S4Pavelka6Plachy3n = 9Pavelka took 6 of 9
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricPavelkaPlachyPavelka − PlachyBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set91+8of 10Avg pointsper match37.535.3+2.2per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPavelkaPlachyBasisWin rate · lifetime446 / 876 vs 735 / 158750.9%46.3%446 / 876 vs 735 / 1587Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.337.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PavelkaPavelka 1.61/Plachy 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.5%
Pavelka · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Pavelka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 30 · 24:30R. Pavelka371115113J. Plachy3081390
WAug 27 · 15:00R. Pavelka4011711113J. Plachy32511881
WAug 25 · 19:30R. Pavelka4111811113J. Plachy33511891
LAug 13 · 14:00R. Pavelka36911881J. Plachy4211911113
LAug 11 · 13:03R. Pavelka3511113101J. Plachy4261311123
WAug 11 · 11:30R. Pavelka3511211113J. Plachy30911371
LAug 7 · 09:28R. Pavelka3611551142J. Plachy44511116113
WAug 7 · 07:00R. Pavelka4111118113J. Plachy29541191
WAug 4 · 09:30R. Pavelka4011611123J. Plachy307112101
LAug 4 · 08:00R. Pavelka34118781J. Plachy4181111113
R. Pavelka10
WSep 23 · 09:30R. Pavelka1.531111123J. Plachy2.3894100LSep 23 · 07:00R. Pavelka1.83108111382P. Zmuda1.831211511113WSep 23 · 06:00M. Vedmoch1.91312421R. Pavelka1.80111011113LSep 20 · 21:30J. Stolfa1.651011711113R. Pavelka2.1012511482WSep 20 · 20:30P. Budinsky1.83118441R. Pavelka1.8351111113WSep 20 · 19:30R. Pavelka1.911111113V. Postelt1.807570LSep 20 · 18:30J. Stolfa1.801111113R. Pavelka1.909760WSep 20 · 03:00R. Pavelka1.7391111143J. Prokupek2.001158121WSep 20 · 02:30P. Budinsky1.73811111162R. Pavelka2.00113134113LSep 20 · 01:00J. Trefny1.9111116113R. Pavelka1.80481141
J. Plachy10
LSep 23 · 09:30R. Pavelka1.531111123J. Plachy2.3894100WSep 23 · 07:30J. Plachy2.20111212113M. Vedmoch1.617101451WSep 23 · 06:30P. Zmuda1.4471131192J. Plachy2.63119115113LSep 21 · 17:30J. Plachy1.91511891L. Babicka1.8011311113WSep 21 · 16:00J. Plachy1.531112113K. Darin2.3881050LSep 21 · 15:30L. Babicka1.9111146113J. Plachy1.809121161WSep 21 · 14:00J. Plachy1.611111113Y. Holovatiuk2.209880WSep 21 · 13:28J. Plachy1.8011101111113L. Babicka1.9113126462LSep 21 · 12:00K. Darin2.38811311113J. Plachy1.5311711502WSep 21 · 11:00J. Dedek2.00531111142J. Plachy1.73111197163
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