TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 21Finished
Jiri Plachy
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
511113811911––
Lukas Babicka
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:59 and never touched — 55.7% is still 55.7%
Graded at full timeJiri Plachy to win
55.7%
55.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJiri Plachy above · Lukas Babicka below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 69 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Jiri Plachy at 55.7%
69 points played in total.
H2H Jiri Plachy 5–3 Lukas Babicka Lukas Babicka has won 3 of their 8 meetings.
They have already met 2 times today · last one 2h before this match
Babicka beat Plachy 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:59What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Babicka
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-3 in 8
Plachy
Wrong
gap of 2 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Plachy 1563 vs Babicka 1469
Plachy
Wrong
both rated, 94 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Plachy 60% vs Babicka 80%
Babicka
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Plachy 60% vs Babicka 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Plachy +1 · Babicka -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Babicka) · live re-read · sealed at 44% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Babicka form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPlachy 1.91 / Babicka 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Babicka)+2.5pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13171919
Plachy1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog41% won 141 of 347
Down 0–1, comes back21% 42 of 198
Down 0–2, comes back6% 6 of 110
Babicka1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite55% won 6 of 11
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomePlachy5wins
AwayBabicka3wins
2 of 8 to a deciderPlachy leads 5–3, and 2 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePlachy80%4 of 5
AwayBabicka66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Plachy5Babicka3n = 8Plachy took 5 of 8
S2Plachy4Babicka4n = 8split evenly
S3Plachy5Babicka3n = 8Plachy took 5 of 8
S4Plachy3Babicka1n = 4Plachy took 3 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home338%
3–1Four sets, home113%
3–2Decider, home113%
2–3Decider, away113%
1–3Four sets, away113%
0–3Straight, away113%
These 8 meetings
MetricPlachyBabickaP − BBasisWins53+2in 8 meetingsFirst set53+2of 8Avg pointsper match38.634.2+4.4per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPlachyBabickaBasisWin rate · lifetime739 / 1592 vs 67 / 13446.4%50%739 / 1592 vs 67 / 134Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.637.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BabickaPlachy 1.91/Babicka 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Babicka · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Babicka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LSep 21 · 15:30J. Plachy389121161L. Babicka4211146113
WSep 21 · 13:28J. Plachy5411101111113L. Babicka4113126462
WSep 21 · 10:30J. Plachy331111113L. Babicka208930
LApr 3 · 02:00J. Plachy143740L. Babicka331111113
WFeb 28 · 12:00J. Plachy331111113L. Babicka206680
LOct 4 · 18:30J. Plachy50118101562L. Babicka492111213113
WSep 7 · 03:30J. Plachy351311113L. Babicka2411760
WSep 7 · 24:00J. Plachy52111513133L. Babicka4561315111
J. Plachy10
WSep 21 · 16:00J. Plachy1.531112113K. Darin2.3881050LSep 21 · 15:30L. Babicka1.9111146113J. Plachy1.809121161WSep 21 · 14:00J. Plachy1.611111113Y. Holovatiuk2.209880WSep 21 · 13:28J. Plachy1.8011101111113L. Babicka1.9113126462LSep 21 · 12:00K. Darin2.38811311113J. Plachy1.5311711502WSep 21 · 11:00J. Dedek2.00531111142J. Plachy1.73111197163WSep 21 · 10:30J. Plachy1.801111113L. Babicka1.918930LSep 14 · 03:30V. Postelt1.651111113J. Plachy2.071540WSep 14 · 02:00J. Plachy1.8381111113J. Prokupek1.83114611WSep 14 · 01:00J. Plachy1.671111113J. Dedek2.104560
L. Babicka10
LSep 21 · 16:30Y. Holovatiuk1.5381111113L. Babicka2.38115861WSep 21 · 15:30L. Babicka1.9111146113J. Plachy1.809121161WSep 21 · 14:30K. Darin1.73118861L. Babicka2.0081111113LSep 21 · 13:28J. Plachy1.8011101111113L. Babicka1.9113126462WSep 21 · 12:30J. Dedek1.73981121L. Babicka2.0011119113WSep 21 · 11:30L. Babicka2.001111113K. Darin1.736980LSep 21 · 10:30J. Plachy1.801111113L. Babicka1.918930WAug 8 · 02:58L. Babicka1.53138911133A. Svoboda2.381111115112LAug 8 · 01:30L. Babicka1.734230M. Kolar2.001111113WAug 8 · 24:30F. Briza2.251271091L. Babicka1.57101112113
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