TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 21Finished
Lukas Babicka
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1191412611116––
Jiri Plachy
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:03 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeLukas Babicka to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLukas Babicka above · Jiri Plachy below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 14-12
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 80 set 4, 11-6 — our read held Lukas Babicka at 54.0%
80 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Babicka 3–5 Jiri Plachy Lukas Babicka has won 3 of their 8 meetings.
They have already met 2 times today · last one 2h before this match
Plachy beat Babicka 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:03What took a side0 for · 4 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Plachy
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-5 in 8
Plachy
Wrong
gap of 2 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Babicka 1489 vs Plachy 1543
Plachy
Wrong
both rated, 53 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Babicka 60% vs Plachy 80%
Plachy
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Babicka 60% vs Plachy 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Babicka +1 · Plachy +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Plachy) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Plachy form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBabicka 1.91 / Plachy 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Plachy)+2.5pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13165764
Babicka1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Plachy1.80
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite58% won 128 of 221
Up 2–0, closes it97% 64 of 66
Up 1–0, closes it88% 94 of 107
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeBabicka3wins
AwayPlachy5wins
2 of 8 to a deciderPlachy leads 5–3, and 2 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBabicka66.7%2 of 3
AwayPlachy80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Babicka3Plachy5n = 8Plachy took 5 of 8
S2Babicka4Plachy4n = 8split evenly
S3Babicka3Plachy5n = 8Plachy took 5 of 8
S4Babicka1Plachy3n = 4Plachy took 3 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home113%
3–1Four sets, home113%
3–2Decider, home113%
2–3Decider, away113%
1–3Four sets, away113%
0–3Straight, away338%
These 8 meetings
MetricBabickaPlachyB − PBasisWins35−2in 8 meetingsFirst set35−2of 8Avg pointsper match34.238.6−4.4per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBabickaPlachyBasisWin rate · lifetime67 / 133 vs 738 / 159150.4%46.4%67 / 133 vs 738 / 1591Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.137.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PlachyBabicka 1.91/Plachy 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Plachy · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Babicka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WSep 21 · 15:30L. Babicka4211146113J. Plachy389121161
LSep 21 · 13:28L. Babicka4113126462J. Plachy5411101111113
LSep 21 · 10:30L. Babicka208930J. Plachy331111113
WApr 3 · 02:00L. Babicka331111113J. Plachy143740
LFeb 28 · 12:00L. Babicka206680J. Plachy331111113
WOct 4 · 18:30L. Babicka492111213113J. Plachy50118101562
LSep 7 · 03:30L. Babicka2411760J. Plachy351311113
LSep 7 · 24:00L. Babicka4561315111J. Plachy52111513133
L. Babicka10
WSep 21 · 14:30K. Darin1.73118861L. Babicka2.0081111113LSep 21 · 13:28J. Plachy1.8011101111113L. Babicka1.9113126462WSep 21 · 12:30J. Dedek1.73981121L. Babicka2.0011119113WSep 21 · 11:30L. Babicka2.001111113K. Darin1.736980LSep 21 · 10:30J. Plachy1.801111113L. Babicka1.918930WAug 8 · 02:58L. Babicka1.53138911133A. Svoboda2.381111115112LAug 8 · 01:30L. Babicka1.734230M. Kolar2.001111113WAug 8 · 24:30F. Briza2.251271091L. Babicka1.57101112113LAug 7 · 23:30K. Darin1.6791111113L. Babicka2.07115581WAug 7 · 22:30L. Babicka1.671110811123A. Svoboda2.10712115102
J. Plachy10
WSep 21 · 16:00J. Plachy1.531112113K. Darin2.3881050WSep 21 · 14:00J. Plachy1.611111113Y. Holovatiuk2.209880WSep 21 · 13:28J. Plachy1.8011101111113L. Babicka1.9113126462LSep 21 · 12:00K. Darin2.38811311113J. Plachy1.5311711502WSep 21 · 11:00J. Dedek2.00531111142J. Plachy1.73111197163WSep 21 · 10:30J. Plachy1.801111113L. Babicka1.918930LSep 14 · 03:30V. Postelt1.651111113J. Plachy2.071540WSep 14 · 02:00J. Plachy1.8381111113J. Prokupek1.83114611WSep 14 · 01:00J. Plachy1.671111113J. Dedek2.104560LSep 14 · 24:00V. Postelt1.6111415163J. Plachy2.2011113141
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