TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Jan Steffan vs Jiri Moravek 3-0 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 23Finished
Jan Steffan
Home
1.57
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1210117117––––
Jiri Moravek
Away
2.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:12 and never touched — 66.9% is still 66.9%
Graded at full timeJan Steffan to win
66.9%
66.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Steffan above · Jiri Moravek below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 58 set 3, 11-7 — our read held Jan Steffan at 66.9%
58 points played in total.
H2H Jan Steffan 5–0 Jiri Moravek Jiri Moravek has won 0 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:12What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Steffan
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-0 in 5
Steffan
Correct
gap of 5 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Steffan 1410 vs Moravek 1433
Moravek
Wrong
both rated, 23 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Steffan 40% vs Moravek 60%
Moravek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Steffan 40% vs Moravek 60%
Moravek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Steffan -1 · Moravek -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Steffan) · live re-read · sealed at 67% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Moravek form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSteffan 1.57 / Moravek 2.25
Signal prob.60% / 40%
Edge (Steffan)+1.2pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13176978
Steffan1.57
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Sep 22)
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite60% won 117 of 194
Up 2–0, closes it89% 59 of 66
Up 1–0, closes it78% 90 of 116
Moravek2.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Sep 21)
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog35% won 13 of 37
Down 0–1, comes back24% 6 of 25
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 17
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeSteffan5wins
AwayMoravek0wins
2 of 5 to a deciderSteffan leads 5–0, and 2 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSteffann = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayMoravek0%0 of 3
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Steffan2Moravek3n = 5Moravek took 3 of 5
S2Steffan4Moravek1n = 5Steffan took 4 of 5
S3Steffan5Moravek0n = 5Steffan took 5 of 5
S4Steffan2Moravek2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home120%
3–1Four sets, home240%
3–2Decider, home240%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricSteffanMoravekS − MBasisWins50+5in 5 meetingsFirst set23−1of 5Avg pointsper match42.435.6+6.8per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSteffanMoravekBasisWin rate · lifetime464 / 979 vs 85 / 17647.4%48.3%464 / 979 vs 85 / 176Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.136.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SteffanSteffan 1.57/Moravek 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.1%
Steffan · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Steffan won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WApr 19 · 20:30J. Steffan331111113J. Moravek246990
WMar 3 · 19:00J. Steffan50119118113J. Moravek4691171182
WNov 16 · 22:02J. Steffan4171111123J. Moravek331184101
WNov 16 · 19:00J. Steffan48711127113J. Moravek44116101162
WJul 16 · 19:30J. Steffan4071111113J. Moravek31116861
J. Steffan10
WSep 23 · 20:00R. Bartunek1.671081181J. Steffan2.1012117113WSep 23 · 19:00V. Kosar1.919750J. Steffan1.801111113LSep 22 · 03:30J. Jnr1.6311111113J. Steffan2.13114791WSep 22 · 02:00P. Picek1.804380J. Steffan1.911111113LSep 22 · 24:30J. Steffan1.571311117102T. Andrle2.25159611123LSep 21 · 23:00J. Steffan2.20911911112J. Jnr1.61117117133WSep 21 · 22:00A. Svoboda1.80911571J. Steffan1.9111911113LSep 21 · 09:28T. Nohejl1.67126811143J. Steffan2.101011117122LSep 21 · 08:00T. Nohejl2.0061112113J. Steffan1.731141021WSep 21 · 07:00V. Dolezal2.00311100J. Steffan1.731113123
J. Moravek10
WSep 23 · 19:30J. Moravek2.50119118123R. Bartunek1.50911711102LSep 21 · 21:30R. Bartunek1.671111113J. Moravek2.087980WSep 21 · 20:30J. Moravek1.5711911113M. Stefek2.25411471LSep 21 · 19:00J. Moravek2.257911101R. Bartunek1.5711116123WSep 21 · 18:00V. Nohejl1.44111211792J. Moravek2.63814811113WAug 30 · 21:29T. Regner1.4011391192J. Moravek2.75611119113WAug 30 · 20:30J. Didi3.00116671J. Moravek1.3681111113WAug 30 · 19:30J. Moravek2.001111113M. Stefek1.737690LAug 30 · 18:30T. Regner1.441111113J. Moravek2.638790LAug 27 · 21:28M. Stefek1.831011611113J. Moravek1.8312311662
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