TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Jan Varcl Jnr vs Jan Steffan 3-1 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 22Finished
Jan Varcl Jnr
Home
1.63
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
111114117119––
Jan Steffan
Away
2.13
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 02:55 and never touched — 55.7% is still 55.7%
Graded at full timeJan Varcl Jnr to win
55.7%
55.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Varcl Jnr above · Jan Steffan below
Set 1 · 1-11
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 65 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Jan Varcl Jnr at 55.7%
65 points played in total.
H2H Jan Varcl Jnr 14–15 Jan Steffan Jan Varcl Jnr has won 14 of their 29 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 5h before this match
Jnr beat Steffan 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 02:55What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.63 (57%)
Jnr
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
14-15 in 29
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jnr 1499 vs Steffan 1404
Jnr
Correct
both rated, 96 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jnr 80% vs Steffan 40%
Jnr
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jnr 70% vs Steffan 40%
Jnr
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Jnr +4 · Steffan +1
Jnr
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Jnr) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jnr form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (61%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJnr 1.63 / Steffan 2.13
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Jnr)+0.8pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13174355
Jnr1.63
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite64% won 34 of 53
Up 2–0, closes it100% 15 of 15
Up 1–0, closes it78% 21 of 27
Steffan2.13
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog39% won 87 of 226
Down 0–1, comes back18% 21 of 117
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 69
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJnr7wins
AwaySteffan3wins
5 of 10 to a deciderJnr leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJnr75%6 of 8
AwaySteffann = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jnr8Steffan2n = 10Jnr took 8 of 10
S2Jnr4Steffan6n = 10Steffan took 6 of 10
S3Jnr6Steffan4n = 10Jnr took 6 of 10
S4Jnr2Steffan6n = 8Steffan took 6 of 8
S5Jnr4Steffan1n = 5Jnr took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricJnrSteffanJ − SBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match42.741.4+1.3per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJnrSteffanBasisWin rate · lifetime124 / 242 vs 464 / 97951.2%47.4%124 / 242 vs 464 / 979Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.437.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JnrJnr 1.63/Steffan 2.13
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.4%
Jnr · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Jnr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 21 · 23:00J. Jnr49117117133J. Steffan51911911112
WAug 31 · 23:30J. Jnr517121110113J. Steffan42111071222
WAug 26 · 09:29J. Jnr341112113J. Steffan2781090
WAug 26 · 06:00J. Jnr46131210113J. Steffan3711101241
WAug 13 · 01:00J. Jnr4211911113J. Steffan37911981
LAug 10 · 23:30J. Jnr27710100J. Steffan351112123
WJul 7 · 18:30J. Jnr46111437113J. Steffan47812111152
LMay 28 · 21:00J. Jnr4211813101J. Steffan4571115123
WMay 28 · 18:30J. Jnr46117116113J. Steffan4071171142
LApr 30 · 02:00J. Jnr44114127102J. Steffan539111011123
J. Jnr10
WSep 22 · 02:30J. Jnr1.441111113A. Svoboda2.635880WSep 22 · 01:30T. Andrle2.0081191362J. Jnr1.731111111113WSep 22 · 24:00J. Jnr1.8091211113P. Picek1.911110991WSep 21 · 23:00J. Steffan2.20911911112J. Jnr1.61117117133LSep 14 · 09:30J. Jnr1.90971161K. Darin1.8011115113WSep 14 · 08:30M. Stefek3.257490J. Jnr1.331111113WSep 14 · 07:30J. Jnr2.101111113K. Darin1.679960WSep 14 · 06:30A. Svoboda1.7311134442J. Jnr2.007111111113LSep 10 · 20:58Y. Holovatiuk1.831111113J. Jnr1.839890LSep 10 · 20:00J. Jnr1.6188120Y. Holovatiuk2.201111143
J. Steffan10
WSep 22 · 02:00P. Picek1.804380J. Steffan1.911111113LSep 22 · 24:30J. Steffan1.571311117102T. Andrle2.25159611123LSep 21 · 23:00J. Steffan2.20911911112J. Jnr1.61117117133WSep 21 · 22:00A. Svoboda1.80911571J. Steffan1.9111911113LSep 21 · 09:28T. Nohejl1.67126811143J. Steffan2.101011117122LSep 21 · 08:00T. Nohejl2.0061112113J. Steffan1.731141021WSep 21 · 07:00V. Dolezal2.00311100J. Steffan1.731113123WSep 21 · 06:30J. Steffan1.251111133J. Strnad3.7596110LSep 17 · 02:30J. Steffan1.9159150R. Bartunek1.801111173LSep 17 · 01:30V. Dolezal2.1011511113J. Steffan1.67811661
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