TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Jan Varcl Jnr vs Petr Picek 3-1 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 22Finished
Jan Varcl Jnr
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
9111210119119––
Petr Picek
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 6Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 6
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:16 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timePetr Picek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJan Varcl Jnr above · Petr Picek below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 82 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Petr Picek at 54.0%
82 points played in total.
H2H Jan Varcl Jnr 5–4 Petr Picek Petr Picek has won 4 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:16What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Jnr
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-4 in 9
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jnr 1463 vs Picek 1483
Picek
Wrong
both rated, 20 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jnr 80% vs Picek 100%
Picek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jnr 50% vs Picek 70%
Picek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Jnr +1 · Picek +6
Picek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Jnr) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Picek form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJnr 1.80 / Picek 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Jnr)+2.5pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13168380
Jnr1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite64% won 34 of 53
Up 2–0, closes it100% 15 of 15
Up 1–0, closes it78% 21 of 27
Picek1.91
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 6
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog27% won 21 of 77
Down 0–1, comes back10% 5 of 49
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 29
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeJnr5wins
AwayPicek4wins
3 of 9 to a deciderJnr leads 5–4, and 3 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJnr100%4 of 4
AwayPicek80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jnr4Picek5n = 9Picek took 5 of 9
S2Jnr3Picek6n = 9Picek took 6 of 9
S3Jnr6Picek3n = 9Jnr took 6 of 9
S4Jnr3Picek3n = 6split evenly
S5Jnr2Picek1n = 3Jnr took 2 of 3
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home111%
3–1Four sets, home222%
3–2Decider, home222%
2–3Decider, away111%
1–3Four sets, away111%
0–3Straight, away222%
These 9 meetings
MetricJnrPicekJ − PBasisWins54+1in 9 meetingsFirst set45−1of 9Avg pointsper match36.936.8+0.1per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJnrPicekBasisWin rate · lifetime121 / 239 vs 280 / 55350.6%50.6%121 / 239 vs 280 / 553Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.436.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JnrJnr 1.80/Picek 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Jnr · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Jnr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WSep 1 · 03:30J. Jnr50791111123P. Picek43111165102
LSep 1 · 01:00J. Jnr27371161P. Picek3611113113
LApr 30 · 24:00J. Jnr209560P. Picek331111113
LMar 19 · 24:30J. Jnr3451111612P. Picek51119911113
WFeb 26 · 01:30J. Jnr45111211113P. Picek27514351
LJan 13 · 03:30J. Jnr2510870P. Picek341211113
WSep 9 · 01:30J. Jnr381111163P. Picek2446140
WMay 6 · 24:00J. Jnr4112117113P. Picek301061131
WApr 16 · 22:00J. Jnr52118117153P. Picek53911911132
J. Jnr10
WSep 21 · 23:00J. Steffan2.20911911112J. Jnr1.61117117133LSep 14 · 09:30J. Jnr1.90971161K. Darin1.8011115113WSep 14 · 08:30M. Stefek3.257490J. Jnr1.331111113WSep 14 · 07:30J. Jnr2.101111113K. Darin1.679960WSep 14 · 06:30A. Svoboda1.7311134442J. Jnr2.007111111113LSep 10 · 20:58Y. Holovatiuk1.831111113J. Jnr1.839890LSep 10 · 20:00J. Jnr1.6188120Y. Holovatiuk2.201111143LSep 10 · 19:30L. Krok1.611261011113J. Jnr2.20101112892LSep 10 · 18:00J. Jnr2.20681141J. Prokupek1.6111117113WSep 8 · 21:00Y. Holovatiuk1.834980J. Jnr1.831111113
P. Picek10
WSep 22 · 01:00P. Picek1.531111113A. Svoboda2.387660WSep 21 · 22:30T. Andrle1.6791171152P. Picek2.10119119113WSep 17 · 03:30P. Picek1.7311311133M. Smrcek2.007113111WSep 17 · 02:00P. Picek1.80611117113M. Smrcek1.9111871152WSep 17 · 01:00P. Picek1.4091111123R. Bartunek2.751179101WSep 17 · 24:00J. Steffan1.9144111182P. Picek1.80111139113WSep 16 · 22:30V. Dolezal2.381015111272P. Picek1.531213714113LSep 16 · 02:58V. Dolezal3.001111113P. Picek1.367660WSep 16 · 02:30P. Picek1.5781111113A. Svoboda2.25117721LSep 16 · 01:30P. Klusacek1.6111119113P. Picek2.20671191
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