TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Petr Picek vs Adam Svoboda 3-0 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 22Finished
Petr Picek
Home
1.53
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
117116116––––
Adam Svoboda
Away
2.38
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:15 and never touched — 59.6% is still 59.6%
Graded at full timePetr Picek to win
59.6%
59.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPetr Picek above · Adam Svoboda below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-6
Point 52 set 3, 11-6 — our read held Petr Picek at 59.6%
52 points played in total.
H2H Petr Picek 10–2 Adam Svoboda Adam Svoboda has won 2 of their 12 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:15What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Picek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-2 in 12
Picek
Correct
gap of 8 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Picek 1471 vs Svoboda 1505
Svoboda
Wrong
both rated, 34 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Picek 80% vs Svoboda 40%
Picek
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Picek 70% vs Svoboda 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Picek -1 · Svoboda -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Slight lean (leans Picek) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Picek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPicek 1.53 / Svoboda 2.38
Signal prob.62% / 39%
Edge (Svoboda)-0.7pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13168321
Picek1.53
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite60% won 75 of 126
Up 2–0, closes it90% 35 of 39
Up 1–0, closes it80% 57 of 71
Svoboda2.38
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog42% won 44 of 106
Down 0–1, comes back19% 12 of 63
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 36
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePicek8wins
AwaySvoboda2wins
3 of 10 to a deciderPicek leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePicek83.3%5 of 6
AwaySvoboda25%1 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Picek6Svoboda4n = 10Picek took 6 of 10
S2Picek6Svoboda4n = 10Picek took 6 of 10
S3Picek8Svoboda2n = 10Picek took 8 of 10
S4Picek4Svoboda3n = 7Picek took 4 of 7
S5Picek2Svoboda1n = 3Picek took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricPicekSvobodaP − SBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match39.733.0+6.7per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPicekSvobodaBasisWin rate · lifetime280 / 554 vs 180 / 33950.5%53.1%280 / 554 vs 180 / 339Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.937.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PicekPicek 1.53/Svoboda 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
61.5%
Picek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Picek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 16 · 02:30P. Picek4181111113A. Svoboda27117721
WAug 18 · 23:00P. Picek43111011113A. Svoboda31912641
WJul 14 · 01:30P. Picek47511119113A. Svoboda4011361192
WApr 25 · 24:30P. Picek341112113A. Svoboda1861020
WApr 4 · 01:30P. Picek4111811113A. Svoboda32811671
LMar 21 · 02:00P. Picek4312711672A. Svoboda521011911113
WMar 14 · 01:00P. Picek541311117123A. Svoboda46152811102
LDec 30 · 02:30P. Picek236890A. Svoboda331111113
WDec 14 · 04:30P. Picek3811115113A. Svoboda34881171
WDec 14 · 24:00P. Picek331111113A. Svoboda171970
P. Picek10
LSep 22 · 24:00J. Jnr1.8091211113P. Picek1.911110991WSep 21 · 22:30T. Andrle1.6791171152P. Picek2.10119119113WSep 17 · 03:30P. Picek1.7311311133M. Smrcek2.007113111WSep 17 · 02:00P. Picek1.80611117113M. Smrcek1.9111871152WSep 17 · 01:00P. Picek1.4091111123R. Bartunek2.751179101WSep 17 · 24:00J. Steffan1.9144111182P. Picek1.80111139113WSep 16 · 22:30V. Dolezal2.381015111272P. Picek1.531213714113LSep 16 · 02:58V. Dolezal3.001111113P. Picek1.367660WSep 16 · 02:30P. Picek1.5781111113A. Svoboda2.25117721LSep 16 · 01:30P. Klusacek1.6111119113P. Picek2.20671191
A. Svoboda10
LSep 21 · 23:30A. Svoboda2.251560T. Andrle1.571111113LSep 21 · 22:00A. Svoboda1.80911571J. Steffan1.9111911113WSep 19 · 03:30M. Placek1.618860A. Svoboda2.201111113LSep 19 · 02:30M. Placek1.911111113A. Svoboda1.809790WSep 19 · 01:00D. Horak2.2057111142A. Svoboda1.61111165113WSep 18 · 23:30A. Svoboda1.8301211133O. Kucirek1.8311103111WSep 18 · 22:00A. Svoboda1.80112911113F. Briza1.9171111762WSep 18 · 17:00A. Svoboda1.2811811113D. Horak3.50611681WSep 18 · 16:00D. Horak1.8312271162A. Svoboda1.831011119113LSep 16 · 02:30P. Picek1.5781111113A. Svoboda2.25117721
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