TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13146722
Played Sep 19Finished
David Horak
Home
2.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
511711116115411
Adam Svoboda
Away
1.62
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:38 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeAdam Svoboda to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDavid Horak above · Adam Svoboda below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 11-5
Set 5 · 4-11
Point 82 set 5, 4-11 — our read held Adam Svoboda at 54.0%
82 points played in total.
H2H David Horak 4–7 Adam Svoboda David Horak has won 4 of their 11 meetings.
They have already met 2 times today · last one 8h before this match
Svoboda beat Horak 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:38What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Svoboda
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-7 in 11
Svoboda
Correct
gap of 3 in 11, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Horak 1400 vs Svoboda 1543
Svoboda
Correct
both rated, 143 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Horak 20% vs Svoboda 80%
Svoboda
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Horak 40% vs Svoboda 70%
Svoboda
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Horak -1 · Svoboda +4
Svoboda
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Slight lean (leans Svoboda) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Svoboda form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHorak 2.20 / Svoboda 1.61
Signal prob.39% / 62%
Edge (Svoboda)+3.8pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13146722
Horak2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog37% won 22 of 59
Down 0–1, comes back17% 5 of 30
Down 0–2, comes back6% 1 of 17
Svoboda1.61
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite63% won 65 of 104
Up 2–0, closes it93% 41 of 44
Up 1–0, closes it87% 47 of 54
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHorak4wins
AwaySvoboda6wins
5 of 10 to a deciderSvoboda leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHorak66.7%4 of 6
AwaySvoboda100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Horak6Svoboda4n = 10Horak took 6 of 10
S2Horak6Svoboda4n = 10Horak took 6 of 10
S3Horak4Svoboda6n = 10Svoboda took 6 of 10
S4Horak2Svoboda6n = 8Svoboda took 6 of 8
S5Horak2Svoboda3n = 5Svoboda took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricHorakSvobodaH − SBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match37.039.1−2.1per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHorakSvobodaBasisWin rate · lifetime274 / 511 vs 178 / 33453.6%53.3%274 / 511 vs 178 / 334Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.937.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SvobodaHorak 2.20/Svoboda 1.61
Hit
What we said
61.5%
Svoboda · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Svoboda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 18 · 17:00D. Horak31611681A. Svoboda4111811113
LSep 18 · 16:00D. Horak3812271162A. Svoboda521011119113
LAug 15 · 19:30D. Horak32116961A. Svoboda3631111113
WAug 15 · 17:00D. Horak331111113A. Svoboda208570
LAug 15 · 14:30D. Horak4281112742A. Svoboda501171011113
WJul 17 · 22:30D. Horak46117116113A. Svoboda3941181152
WJul 11 · 24:00D. Horak44111147113A. Svoboda4167111162
LJun 20 · 02:30D. Horak198380A. Svoboda331111113
LJun 6 · 01:00D. Horak4091111632A. Svoboda45116611113
WMay 30 · 03:30D. Horak45111112113A. Svoboda34771461
D. Horak10
LSep 19 · 24:00M. Placek1.44111111123D. Horak2.631347101WSep 18 · 22:30O. Kucirek3.5091111101D. Horak1.2811139123LSep 18 · 17:00A. Svoboda1.2811811113D. Horak3.50611681LSep 18 · 16:00D. Horak1.8312271162A. Svoboda1.831011119113LSep 18 · 15:30F. Briza2.2512116113D. Horak1.571081151LSep 18 · 14:00D. Horak1.50411661T. Kolenic2.5011611113WSep 13 · 09:29D. Horak1.931311113D. Barton1.7811680LSep 13 · 08:00D. Barton2.20761111113D. Horak1.6111117152WSep 13 · 07:00M. Stefek4.50138941D. Horak1.17111111113WSep 13 · 06:30D. Horak1.2891111113V. Dolezal3.50113861
A. Svoboda10
WSep 18 · 23:30A. Svoboda1.8301211133O. Kucirek1.8311103111WSep 18 · 22:00A. Svoboda1.80112911113F. Briza1.9171111762WSep 18 · 17:00A. Svoboda1.2811811113D. Horak3.50611681WSep 18 · 16:00D. Horak1.8312271162A. Svoboda1.831011119113LSep 18 · 15:00T. Kolenic1.8391311123A. Svoboda1.8311119101WSep 18 · 14:30A. Svoboda1.91611119133F. Briza1.80115811112LSep 16 · 02:30P. Picek1.5781111113A. Svoboda2.25117721WSep 16 · 01:00V. Dolezal2.63561171A. Svoboda1.4411119113WSep 15 · 23:30A. Svoboda1.661071111113P. Klusacek2.0512117892LSep 15 · 22:00A. Svoboda1.808811101J. Steffan1.9111116123
Upcoming Matches
D. Horak
Nothing scheduled
A. Svoboda
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