TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13144398
Played Sep 17Finished
Petr Picek
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1173111131311––
Milan Smrcek
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 03:22 and never touched — 56.4% is still 56.4%
Graded at full timePetr Picek to win
56.4%
56.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPetr Picek above · Milan Smrcek below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 11-3
Set 4 · 13-11
Point 70 set 4, 13-11 — our read held Petr Picek at 56.4%
70 points played in total.
H2H Petr Picek 27–20 Milan Smrcek Milan Smrcek has won 20 of their 47 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Picek beat Smrcek 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 03:22What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Picek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
27-20 in 47
Picek
Correct
gap of 7 in 47, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Picek 1478 vs Smrcek 1390
Picek
Correct
both rated, 88 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Picek 80% vs Smrcek 60%
Picek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Picek 60% vs Smrcek 40%
Picek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Picek +4 · Smrcek -1
Picek
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Picek) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Picek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPicek 1.73 / Smrcek 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Picek)+0.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13144398
Picek1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite57% won 71 of 124
Up 2–0, closes it90% 35 of 39
Up 1–0, closes it79% 55 of 70
Smrcek2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog35% won 19 of 55
Down 0–1, comes back22% 7 of 32
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 19
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePicek6wins
AwaySmrcek4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderPicek leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePicek66.7%4 of 6
AwaySmrcek50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Picek6Smrcek4n = 10Picek took 6 of 10
S2Picek4Smrcek6n = 10Smrcek took 6 of 10
S3Picek6Smrcek4n = 10Picek took 6 of 10
S4Picek3Smrcek5n = 8Smrcek took 5 of 8
S5Picek3Smrcek1n = 4Picek took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricPicekSmrcekP − SBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match37.838.1−0.3per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPicekSmrcekBasisWin rate · lifetime282 / 561 vs 248 / 50850.3%48.8%282 / 561 vs 248 / 508Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.837.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PicekPicek 1.73/Smrcek 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Picek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Picek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 17 · 02:00P. Picek46611117113M. Smrcek4211871152
WAug 23 · 24:30P. Picek44127113113M. Smrcek43101171142
WJun 21 · 01:30P. Picek4311219113M. Smrcek425111791
LMay 24 · 23:30P. Picek346111341M. Smrcek4311615113
LApr 30 · 03:29P. Picek341110491M. Smrcek4281211113
WApr 30 · 02:30P. Picek45116116113M. Smrcek4371171172
WApr 20 · 01:00P. Picek4171211113M. Smrcek311110461
LApr 10 · 03:30P. Picek44116111152M. Smrcek45811132113
WApr 9 · 23:00P. Picek331111113M. Smrcek179170
LApr 5 · 01:00P. Picek143650M. Smrcek331111113
P. Picek10
WSep 17 · 02:00P. Picek1.80611117113M. Smrcek1.9111871152WSep 17 · 01:00P. Picek1.4091111123R. Bartunek2.751179101WSep 17 · 24:00J. Steffan1.9144111182P. Picek1.80111139113WSep 16 · 22:30V. Dolezal2.381015111272P. Picek1.531213714113LSep 16 · 02:58V. Dolezal3.001111113P. Picek1.367660WSep 16 · 02:30P. Picek1.5781111113A. Svoboda2.25117721LSep 16 · 01:30P. Klusacek1.6111119113P. Picek2.20671191LSep 16 · 24:00P. Picek1.28139361V. Dolezal3.50111111113WSep 15 · 23:00J. Steffan2.00781171P. Picek1.7311119113LSep 15 · 02:00P. Picek3.751611581O. Kucirek1.2518811113
M. Smrcek10
LSep 17 · 02:00P. Picek1.80611117113M. Smrcek1.9111871152WSep 17 · 24:30M. Smrcek1.4411117113V. Dolezal2.63941151LSep 16 · 23:00M. Smrcek1.6779111182J. Steffan2.10111159113WSep 16 · 22:00R. Bartunek2.2048170M. Smrcek1.611111193WAug 26 · 21:00K. Darin1.44311771M. Smrcek2.6311411113LAug 26 · 20:30Y. Holovatiuk1.4011611113M. Smrcek2.75711841LAug 26 · 19:30M. Smrcek1.80136991T. Kolenic1.91111111113LAug 26 · 18:30K. Darin1.5011113113M. Smrcek2.50791191LAug 26 · 09:06K. Darin1.80312811113M. Smrcek1.85111011362WAug 26 · 08:30J. Jnr1.9151151392M. Smrcek1.801141111113
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