TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13157479
Played Sep 19Finished
Marek Placek
Home
1.62
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
811811611––––
Adam Svoboda
Away
2.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 02:56 and never touched — 63.5% is still 63.5%
Graded at full timeMarek Placek to win
63.5%
63.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMarek Placek above · Adam Svoboda below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Point 55 set 3, 6-11 — our read held Marek Placek at 63.5%
55 points played in total.
H2H Marek Placek 5–1 Adam Svoboda Adam Svoboda has won 1 of their 6 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 1h before this match
Placek beat Svoboda 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 02:56What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Placek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-1 in 6
Placek
Wrong
gap of 4 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Placek 1491 vs Svoboda 1522
Svoboda
Correct
both rated, 30 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Placek 80% vs Svoboda 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Placek 60% vs Svoboda 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Placek +4 · Svoboda -1
Placek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Placek) · live re-read · sealed at 64% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Svoboda form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPlacek 1.61 / Svoboda 2.20
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Svoboda)+2.8pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13157479
Placek1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite61% won 45 of 74
Up 2–0, closes it93% 25 of 27
Up 1–0, closes it83% 38 of 46
Svoboda2.20
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog40% won 42 of 104
Down 0–1, comes back18% 11 of 62
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 36
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomePlacek5wins
AwaySvoboda1wins
2 of 6 to a deciderPlacek leads 5–1, and 2 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePlacek100%5 of 5
AwaySvobodan = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Placek5Svoboda1n = 6Placek took 5 of 6
S2Placek4Svoboda2n = 6Placek took 4 of 6
S3Placek2Svoboda4n = 6Svoboda took 4 of 6
S4Placek2Svoboda2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home117%
3–1Four sets, home233%
3–2Decider, home233%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away117%
These 6 meetings
MetricPlacekSvobodaP − SBasisWins51+4in 6 meetingsFirst set51+4of 6Avg pointsper match41.536.5+5.0per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPlacekSvobodaBasisWin rate · lifetime207 / 400 vs 179 / 33651.8%53.3%207 / 400 vs 179 / 336Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.437.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PlacekPlacek 1.61/Svoboda 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.9%
Placek · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Svoboda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WSep 19 · 02:30M. Placek331111113A. Svoboda259790
LSep 13 · 01:00M. Placek2710890A. Svoboda341211113
WMay 23 · 02:00M. Placek44111111113A. Svoboda37971381
WApr 24 · 23:00M. Placek43111011113A. Svoboda32412791
WJan 3 · 02:30M. Placek541112128113A. Svoboda51810141182
WDec 6 · 02:30M. Placek48111169113A. Svoboda4084111162
M. Placek10
WSep 19 · 02:30M. Placek1.911111113A. Svoboda1.809790WSep 19 · 01:30O. Kucirek2.3811911992M. Placek1.53711411113WSep 19 · 24:00M. Placek1.44111111123D. Horak2.631347101WSep 18 · 23:00F. Briza2.201112991M. Placek1.6161411113LSep 13 · 02:58A. Mikuska1.531111113M. Placek2.386950LSep 13 · 02:30A. Mikuska1.571081111113M. Placek2.2512116962LSep 13 · 01:00A. Svoboda2.101211113M. Placek1.6710890LSep 12 · 23:30M. Placek1.578116111F. Briza2.2511511133WSep 12 · 22:00M. Placek1.831111113M. Kolar1.838870WSep 12 · 20:58M. Placek1.5012119113F. Briza2.501081181
A. Svoboda10
LSep 19 · 02:30M. Placek1.911111113A. Svoboda1.809790WSep 19 · 01:00D. Horak2.2057111142A. Svoboda1.61111165113WSep 18 · 23:30A. Svoboda1.8301211133O. Kucirek1.8311103111WSep 18 · 22:00A. Svoboda1.80112911113F. Briza1.9171111762WSep 18 · 17:00A. Svoboda1.2811811113D. Horak3.50611681WSep 18 · 16:00D. Horak1.8312271162A. Svoboda1.831011119113LSep 18 · 15:00T. Kolenic1.8391311123A. Svoboda1.8311119101WSep 18 · 14:30A. Svoboda1.91611119133F. Briza1.80115811112LSep 16 · 02:30P. Picek1.5781111113A. Svoboda2.25117721WSep 13 · 01:00A. Svoboda2.101211113M. Placek1.6710890
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