TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13135676
Played Sep 17Finished
Vaclav Dolezal
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
118511116116––
Jan Steffan
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:17 and never touched — 55.7% is still 55.7%
Graded at full timeJan Steffan to win
55.7%
55.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingVaclav Dolezal above · Jan Steffan below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 69 set 4, 11-6 — our read held Jan Steffan at 55.7%
69 points played in total.
H2H Vaclav Dolezal 11–23 Jan Steffan Vaclav Dolezal has won 11 of their 34 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 15:17What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Steffan
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-23 in 34
Steffan
Wrong
gap of 12 in 34, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dolezal 1397 vs Steffan 1399
Steffan
Wrong
both rated, 2 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dolezal 20% vs Steffan 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dolezal 40% vs Steffan 20%
Dolezal
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Dolezal -3 · Steffan -1
Dolezal
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Steffan) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Steffan form (20%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDolezal 2.10 / Steffan 1.67
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Steffan)+1.2pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13135676
Dolezal2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As underdog30% won 36 of 119
Down 0–1, comes back23% 17 of 74
Down 0–2, comes back11% 5 of 45
Steffan1.67
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite62% won 119 of 192
Up 2–0, closes it90% 60 of 67
Up 1–0, closes it78% 92 of 118
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDolezal4wins
AwaySteffan6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderSteffan leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDolezal33.3%1 of 3
AwaySteffan57.1%4 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dolezal3Steffan7n = 10Steffan took 7 of 10
S2Dolezal7Steffan3n = 10Dolezal took 7 of 10
S3Dolezal5Steffan5n = 10split evenly
S4Dolezal2Steffan6n = 8Steffan took 6 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricDolezalSteffanD − SBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match36.438.8−2.4per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDolezalSteffanBasisWin rate · lifetime386 / 778 vs 466 / 98249.6%47.5%386 / 778 vs 466 / 982Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.237.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SteffanDolezal 2.10/Steffan 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57%
Steffan · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Dolezal won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJun 29 · 24:30V. Dolezal371214113J. Steffan28101260
WJun 18 · 09:30V. Dolezal56911169113J. Steffan52117141192
LJun 18 · 06:30V. Dolezal31911561J. Steffan4211911113
LJun 14 · 23:00V. Dolezal167450J. Steffan331111113
LMay 9 · 01:00V. Dolezal33118591J. Steffan4071111113
WApr 1 · 11:30V. Dolezal43101111113J. Steffan33127681
WMar 31 · 24:30V. Dolezal4071111113J. Steffan33115891
LMar 13 · 02:00V. Dolezal25311291J. Steffan4111811113
LJan 11 · 08:30V. Dolezal48111196112J. Steffan44721111133
LDec 5 · 10:30V. Dolezal3510411101J. Steffan4212117123
V. Dolezal10
LSep 17 · 24:30M. Smrcek1.4411117113V. Dolezal2.63941151LSep 16 · 23:30R. Bartunek2.001211113V. Dolezal1.7310680LSep 16 · 22:30V. Dolezal2.381015111272P. Picek1.531213714113WSep 16 · 02:58V. Dolezal3.001111113P. Picek1.367660LSep 16 · 02:00V. Dolezal2.2041181192J. Steffan1.61119118113LSep 16 · 01:00V. Dolezal2.63561171A. Svoboda1.4411119113WSep 16 · 24:00P. Picek1.28139361V. Dolezal3.50111111113WSep 15 · 22:30P. Klusacek1.5712516972V. Dolezal2.2510111411113LSep 15 · 03:30V. Dolezal1.558360V. Kosar2.351111113WSep 15 · 01:30V. Dolezal1.57411311113R. Bartunek2.2511311692
J. Steffan10
LSep 17 · 02:30J. Steffan1.9159150R. Bartunek1.801111173LSep 17 · 24:00J. Steffan1.9144111182P. Picek1.80111139113WSep 16 · 23:00M. Smrcek1.6779111182J. Steffan2.10111159113LSep 16 · 20:58O. Kucirek2.001211113J. Steffan1.7310440LSep 16 · 20:00J. Steffan1.6791191182Y. Holovatiuk2.10118118113LSep 16 · 19:30O. Kucirek2.20111111113J. Steffan1.61621351LSep 16 · 18:00J. Steffan1.5778110T. Andrle2.251111133LSep 16 · 03:28P. Klusacek1.531311113J. Steffan2.3811560WSep 16 · 02:00V. Dolezal2.2041181192J. Steffan1.61119118113LSep 16 · 24:30J. Steffan2.3811119772P. Klusacek1.53361111113
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