TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Jakub Nowak vs Lukasz Oracz 0-1 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 22Finished
Jakub Nowak
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 1
Set by set
16––––––––
Lukasz Oracz
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:37 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeLukasz Oracz to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJakub Nowak above · Lukasz Oracz below
Set 1 · 1-6
Point 7 set 1, 1-6 — our read held Lukasz Oracz at 54.0%
7 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Nowak 12–17 Lukasz Oracz Jakub Nowak has won 12 of their 29 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:37What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Oracz
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-17 in 29
Oracz
Correct
gap of 5 in 29, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Nowak 1242 vs Oracz 1346
Oracz
Correct
both rated, 104 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Nowak 60% vs Oracz 80%
Oracz
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Nowak 50% vs Oracz 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Nowak +1 · Oracz +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Oracz)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Oracz form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNowak 1.91 / Oracz 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Oracz)+2.5pp
TT Elite Series · #13176794
Nowak1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog36% won 240 of 660
Down 0–1, comes back22% 85 of 396
Down 0–2, comes back9% 20 of 230
Oracz1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite63% won 372 of 587
Up 2–0, closes it97% 202 of 209
Up 1–0, closes it82% 289 of 352
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNowak4wins
AwayOracz6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderOracz leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNowak80%4 of 5
AwayOracz100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Nowak5Oracz5n = 10split evenly
S2Nowak5Oracz5n = 10split evenly
S3Nowak4Oracz6n = 10Oracz took 6 of 10
S4Nowak1Oracz3n = 4Oracz took 3 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricNowakOraczN − OBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match32.634.8−2.2per matchSweeps3303–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNowakOraczBasisWin rate · lifetime677 / 1749 vs 830 / 151038.7%55%677 / 1749 vs 830 / 1510Avg sets wonper match1.82.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.638.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OraczNowak 1.91/Oracz 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Oracz · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–1
Oracz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 9 · 02:35J. Nowak2358100L. Oracz341111123
LSep 8 · 18:10J. Nowak4111851162L. Oracz49811118113
WJul 24 · 24:00J. Nowak331111113L. Oracz216690
LJul 15 · 04:00J. Nowak174490L. Oracz331111113
LJul 15 · 24:00J. Nowak36711991L. Oracz4011711113
WJul 12 · 17:05J. Nowak331111113L. Oracz228770
LJul 12 · 08:45J. Nowak397126141L. Oracz48111011163
WJul 5 · 07:10J. Nowak471110114113L. Oracz4291261142
LJun 11 · 21:10J. Nowak2447130L. Oracz371111153
WMay 14 · 03:35J. Nowak331111113L. Oracz224990
J. Nowak10
WSep 22 · 16:35J. Nowak1.731111107113M. Adamus2.0097121162LSep 22 · 15:50M. Koczyba1.4411711113J. Nowak2.63611481WSep 21 · 02:20O. Sokolowski1.805950J. Nowak1.901111113LSep 21 · 01:35S. Szostok1.511111143J. Nowak2.4089120WSep 20 · 23:35M. Sikon1.80615111182J. Nowak1.86111767113LSep 20 · 22:50P. Slosarczyk1.90111111113J. Nowak1.80135661LSep 20 · 21:10R. Ogon2.95121111113J. Nowak1.33149991LSep 20 · 20:20O. Sokolowski1.80119145133J. Nowak1.903111211112WSep 20 · 19:35S. Szostok1.401158161J. Nowak2.7571111183WSep 20 · 17:35M. Sikon1.80118101182J. Nowak1.86711128113
L. Oracz10
WSep 22 · 16:55M. Koczyba1.807911161L. Oracz1.9111119183WSep 22 · 15:25G. Jurowicz2.251021141L. Oracz1.5712118113LSep 18 · 20:30L. Oracz1.50881161J. Kaczmarek2.5011118113WSep 18 · 18:55L. Oracz2.6381111123K. Durak1.441127101WSep 18 · 17:45L. Oracz1.14671113113I. Szymanski5.00111191182LSep 18 · 16:15L. Oracz2.006970K. Hetnar1.731111113LSep 18 · 15:00L. Oracz1.614101181M. Baron2.2011126113WSep 18 · 13:55K. Hetnar1.83111111652L. Oracz1.83813911113WSep 18 · 13:05J. Pelka2.00146591L. Oracz1.73121111113LSep 18 · 12:15L. Oracz1.7391090O. Vincenec2.001112113
Upcoming Matches
J. Nowak
Sep 22 · 19:40J. Nowak2.20G. Jurowicz1.61—Sep 22 · 21:00J. Nowak2.00M. Adamus1.73—Sep 22 · 22:10J. Nowak2.75M. Koczyba1.40—Sep 22 · 23:45J. Nowak2.25G. Jurowicz1.57—Sep 23 · 01:00J. Nowak2.00G. Marud1.73—Sep 23 · 02:35J. Nowak2.10L. Oracz1.67—Sep 23 · 21:35J. Nowak—M. Lebek——Sep 23 · 23:10J. Nowak—K. Hetnar——Sep 24 · 24:25J. Nowak—R. Wiza——Sep 24 · 01:35J. Nowak—O. Sokolowski——
L. Oracz
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