TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Yaroslav Tebenko vs Ivan Fashchevskyi 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 22Finished
Yaroslav Tebenko
Home
1.50
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1199111012811––
Ivan Fashchevskyi
Away
2.50
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:16 and never touched — 66.9% is still 66.9%
Graded at full timeYaroslav Tebenko to win
66.9%
66.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingYaroslav Tebenko above · Ivan Fashchevskyi below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 81 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Yaroslav Tebenko at 66.9%
81 points played in total.
H2H Yaroslav Tebenko 23–8 Ivan Fashchevskyi Ivan Fashchevskyi has won 8 of their 31 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:16What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Tebenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
23-8 in 31
Tebenko
Wrong
gap of 15 in 31, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tebenko 1637 vs Fashchevskyi 1479
Tebenko
Wrong
both rated, 158 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tebenko 80% vs Fashchevskyi 60%
Tebenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tebenko 60% vs Fashchevskyi 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Tebenko +4 · Fashchevskyi -2
Tebenko
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Tebenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Fashchevskyi form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTebenko 1.50 / Fashchevskyi 2.50
Signal prob.67% / 33%
Edge (Tebenko)+4.4pp
Setka Cup · #13173585
Tebenko1.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite59% won 55 of 94
Up 2–0, closes it93% 25 of 27
Up 1–0, closes it82% 37 of 45
Fashchevskyi2.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog43% won 88 of 203
Down 0–1, comes back26% 26 of 101
Down 0–2, comes back8% 4 of 48
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTebenko10wins
AwayFashchevskyi0wins
5 of 10 to a deciderTebenko leads 10–0, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTebenko100%6 of 6
AwayFashchevskyi0%0 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tebenko6Fashchevskyi4n = 10Tebenko took 6 of 10
S2Tebenko9Fashchevskyi1n = 10Tebenko took 9 of 10
S3Tebenko5Fashchevskyi5n = 10split evenly
S4Tebenko5Fashchevskyi3n = 8Tebenko took 5 of 8
S5Tebenko5Fashchevskyi0n = 5Tebenko took 5 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home550%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricTebenkoFashchevskyiT − FBasisWins100+10in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match44.834.7+10.1per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTebenkoFashchevskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime414 / 851 vs 296 / 59748.7%49.6%414 / 851 vs 296 / 597Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.639.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TebenkoTebenko 1.50/Fashchevskyi 2.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
66.9%
Tebenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Fashchevskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 16 · 09:05Y. Tebenko50711119123I. Fashchevskyi42112811102
WSep 15 · 13:05Y. Tebenko4511119143I. Fashchevskyi369411121
WSep 9 · 11:05Y. Tebenko341111123I. Fashchevskyi2064100
WSep 4 · 03:15Y. Tebenko361114113I. Fashchevskyi2281220
WSep 2 · 09:05Y. Tebenko47811116113I. Fashchevskyi3811641162
WAug 31 · 11:05Y. Tebenko3811115113I. Fashchevskyi29921171
WAug 29 · 24:45Y. Tebenko529111011113I. Fashchevskyi4111712652
WAug 26 · 09:05Y. Tebenko581112915113I. Fashchevskyi50514111372
WAug 25 · 15:35Y. Tebenko4111118113I. Fashchevskyi28851141
WAug 24 · 21:00Y. Tebenko474111110113I. Fashchevskyi4111651272
Y. Tebenko10
WSep 22 · 20:45Y. Tebenko1.67111189123I. Pytsko2.10781111102WSep 20 · 19:05Y. Tebenko2.1041113113D. Shchegelskyi1.671151181WSep 20 · 17:05V. Kovalchuk1.6711911832Y. Tebenko2.10711811113WSep 20 · 15:05R. Novak1.8371171162Y. Tebenko1.83117119113LSep 20 · 14:05Y. Tebenko1.91118971O. Storozhenko1.8081111113LSep 20 · 13:05Y. Parahailo1.9111411123Y. Tebenko1.809119101LSep 20 · 02:00Y. Tebenko2.635780M. Khomenko1.441111113LSep 20 · 24:30Y. Tebenko2.006712101V. Kovalchuk1.73111110123WSep 19 · 23:00Y. Tebenko1.91111011113R. Novak1.80912971WSep 19 · 21:30Y. Tebenko1.83116711123Y. Parahailo1.83911114102
I. Fashchevskyi10
LSep 22 · 23:45I. Fashchevskyi2.007690I. Pytsko1.731111113LSep 22 · 21:15I. Fashchevskyi2.25119691D. Maltsev1.5761111113LSep 21 · 17:55I. Fashchevskyi2.2571060D. Maltsev1.571112113WSep 21 · 16:25I. Fashchevskyi1.911110114123I. Pytsko1.80712811102WSep 21 · 14:55I. Fashchevskyi2.20981412113O. Storozhenko1.611111121062WSep 21 · 13:25I. Fashchevskyi2.6361111163Y. Parahailo1.441187141WSep 21 · 11:55I. Fashchevskyi2.0011101110113M. Potapov1.7361281282LSep 21 · 03:15I. Fashchevskyi1.8379100M. Potapov1.831111123WSep 21 · 01:15V. Korobko1.537670I. Fashchevskyi2.381111113WSep 20 · 23:15V. Moshovskyi1.7311771492I. Fashchevskyi2.005111112113
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