TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 21Finished
Ivan Fashchevskyi
Home
2.20
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
91181114121210116
Oleksandr Storozhenko
Away
1.62
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:03 and never touched — 60.9% is still 60.9%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Storozhenko to win
60.9%
60.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingIvan Fashchevskyi above · Oleksandr Storozhenko below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 14-12
Set 4 · 12-10
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 104 set 5, 11-6 — our read held Oleksandr Storozhenko at 60.9%
104 points played in total.
H2H Ivan Fashchevskyi 20–26 Oleksandr Storozhenko Ivan Fashchevskyi has won 20 of their 46 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:03What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Storozhenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
20-26 in 46
Storozhenko
Wrong
gap of 6 in 46, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Fashchevskyi 1462 vs Storozhenko 1584
Storozhenko
Wrong
both rated, 123 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Fashchevskyi 80% vs Storozhenko 60%
Fashchevskyi
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Fashchevskyi 50% vs Storozhenko 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Fashchevskyi +2 · Storozhenko +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Storozhenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Fashchevskyi form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFashchevskyi 2.20 / Storozhenko 1.61
Signal prob.39% / 61%
Edge (Storozhenko)+3.2pp
Setka Cup · #13166590
Fashchevskyi2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog42% won 84 of 198
Down 0–1, comes back25% 24 of 98
Down 0–2, comes back7% 3 of 46
Storozhenko1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite56% won 162 of 288
Up 2–0, closes it88% 57 of 65
Up 1–0, closes it70% 105 of 151
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeFashchevskyi2wins
AwayStorozhenko8wins
4 of 10 to a deciderStorozhenko leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeFashchevskyi0%0 of 4
AwayStorozhenko66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Fashchevskyi4Storozhenko6n = 10Storozhenko took 6 of 10
S2Fashchevskyi3Storozhenko7n = 10Storozhenko took 7 of 10
S3Fashchevskyi7Storozhenko3n = 10Fashchevskyi took 7 of 10
S4Fashchevskyi2Storozhenko8n = 10Storozhenko took 8 of 10
S5Fashchevskyi1Storozhenko3n = 4Storozhenko took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricFashchevskyiStorozhenkoF − SBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match38.042.8−4.8per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFashchevskyiStorozhenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime294 / 593 vs 269 / 51449.6%52.3%294 / 593 vs 269 / 514Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.039.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StorozhenkoFashchevskyi 2.20/Storozhenko 1.61
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
60.9%
Storozhenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Fashchevskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 18 · 21:30I. Fashchevskyi43118111032O. Storozhenko49711812113
LSep 16 · 04:35I. Fashchevskyi30761161O. Storozhenko4011117113
WSep 15 · 19:05I. Fashchevskyi4281111123O. Storozhenko351168101
LSep 14 · 21:30I. Fashchevskyi361178101O. Storozhenko3951111123
LSep 9 · 10:05I. Fashchevskyi331011481O. Storozhenko4012611113
LSep 7 · 21:15I. Fashchevskyi4511711972O. Storozhenko49811811113
WSep 3 · 21:45I. Fashchevskyi44281112113O. Storozhenko48111181082
LAug 31 · 06:35I. Fashchevskyi4251111782O. Storozhenko45117511113
LAug 30 · 03:00I. Fashchevskyi3411121011O. Storozhenko4581412113
LAug 28 · 21:45I. Fashchevskyi31681161O. Storozhenko3811115113
I. Fashchevskyi10
WSep 21 · 13:25I. Fashchevskyi2.6361111163Y. Parahailo1.441187141WSep 21 · 11:55I. Fashchevskyi2.0011101110113M. Potapov1.7361281282LSep 21 · 03:15I. Fashchevskyi1.8379100M. Potapov1.831111123WSep 21 · 01:15V. Korobko1.537670I. Fashchevskyi2.381111113WSep 20 · 23:15V. Moshovskyi1.7311771492I. Fashchevskyi2.005111112113LSep 20 · 22:15I. Fashchevskyi2.00118181162I. Pytsko1.73811206113LSep 20 · 21:15D. Maltsev1.731111113I. Fashchevskyi2.007560WSep 19 · 02:00I. Fashchevskyi2.751111115113V. Kovalchuk1.4076131192LSep 19 · 24:30I. Fashchevskyi2.50117671O. Budnikov1.5091111113LSep 18 · 23:00I. Fashchevskyi2.0012541152D. Maltsev1.731011118113
O. Storozhenko10
WSep 21 · 13:55O. Storozhenko1.5011126113M. Potapov2.505101191LSep 21 · 12:55I. Pytsko2.10111157113O. Storozhenko1.6786111192WSep 20 · 18:35Y. Parahailo1.73135861O. Storozhenko2.00111111113LSep 20 · 17:35D. Shchegelskyi1.8371111143O. Storozhenko1.831195121WSep 20 · 16:05V. Kovalchuk1.8061211342O. Storozhenko1.911110511113WSep 20 · 14:05Y. Tebenko1.91118971O. Storozhenko1.8081111113LSep 20 · 12:05R. Novak1.7311811143O. Storozhenko2.006113121LSep 19 · 03:00D. Maltsev2.2011117123O. Storozhenko1.615911101LSep 19 · 01:30O. Storozhenko1.61146671I. Pytsko2.20121111113WSep 18 · 23:30O. Budnikov2.3811771192O. Storozhenko1.53511113113
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