TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Petr Chlumsky vs Filip Marat 3-1 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 22Finished
Petr Chlumsky
Home
1.57
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
11611711131513––
Filip Marat
Away
2.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:29 and never touched — 59.0% is still 59.0%
Graded at full timePetr Chlumsky to win
59.0%
59.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPetr Chlumsky above · Filip Marat below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-13
Set 4 · 15-13
Point 87 set 4, 15-13 — our read held Petr Chlumsky at 59.0%
87 points played in total.
H2H Petr Chlumsky 14–6 Filip Marat Filip Marat has won 6 of their 20 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:29What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Chlumsky
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
14-6 in 20
Chlumsky
Correct
gap of 8 in 20, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chlumsky 1459 vs Marat 1428
Chlumsky
Correct
both rated, 31 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chlumsky 40% vs Marat 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chlumsky 50% vs Marat 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Chlumsky +2 · Marat -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Chlumsky) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chlumsky form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChlumsky 1.57 / Marat 2.25
Signal prob.61% / 40%
Edge (Chlumsky)+1.6pp
TT Cup · #13173278
Chlumsky1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite61% won 19 of 31
Up 2–0, closes it88% 7 of 8
Up 1–0, closes it75% 9 of 12
Marat2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog42% won 44 of 105
Down 0–1, comes back40% 25 of 63
Down 0–2, comes back25% 8 of 32
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeChlumsky7wins
AwayMarat3wins
6 of 10 to a deciderChlumsky leads 7–3, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChlumsky80%4 of 5
AwayMarat40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chlumsky5Marat5n = 10split evenly
S2Chlumsky8Marat2n = 10Chlumsky took 8 of 10
S3Chlumsky6Marat4n = 10Chlumsky took 6 of 10
S4Chlumsky2Marat4n = 6Marat took 4 of 6
S5Chlumsky4Marat2n = 6Chlumsky took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricChlumskyMaratC − MBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match42.340.2+2.1per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChlumskyMaratBasisWin rate · lifetime137 / 302 vs 235 / 52245.4%45%137 / 302 vs 235 / 522Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.339.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChlumskyChlumsky 1.57/Marat 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.5%
Chlumsky · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Chlumsky won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 30 · 07:55P. Chlumsky4211711852F. Marat47611811113
WJul 27 · 14:05P. Chlumsky351311113F. Marat2611960
WJul 27 · 13:25P. Chlumsky484111111113F. Marat4611691372
WJul 22 · 13:25P. Chlumsky571211118153F. Marat521051311132
LMay 4 · 10:55P. Chlumsky235990F. Marat331111113
WApr 10 · 10:00P. Chlumsky391511133F. Marat33139110
WApr 10 · 06:55P. Chlumsky331111113F. Marat249780
LMar 23 · 14:25P. Chlumsky43311811102F. Marat46115117123
WMar 12 · 13:25P. Chlumsky51713118123F. Marat481111511102
WMar 11 · 13:25P. Chlumsky52913811113F. Marat47111111772
P. Chlumsky10
WSep 22 · 10:55L. Moravec1.839880P. Chlumsky1.831111113WSep 21 · 14:15A. Kral1.911191161P. Chlumsky1.8051113113LSep 21 · 13:25F. Balcar1.571281110113P. Chlumsky2.25101171232LSep 21 · 12:25P. Chlumsky1.573790M. Filipek2.251111113LSep 21 · 10:55A. Kral2.0011811113P. Chlumsky1.73311881WSep 15 · 14:24D. Sochor2.10117116102P. Chlumsky1.67611811123WSep 15 · 12:55D. Sochor1.83781181P. Chlumsky1.8311119113LSep 15 · 12:25P. Moravec1.57116124113P. Chlumsky2.25711101132WSep 15 · 11:25P. Chlumsky1.83121212113A. Kral1.8310101471LSep 9 · 13:58P. Chlumsky1.83121191182L. Moravec1.83148115113
F. Marat10
WSep 22 · 12:55L. Moravec1.6171210151F. Marat2.20111012173LSep 22 · 11:25F. Marat1.91155111152A. Kral1.80171169113WSep 18 · 18:00F. Marat1.831111113R. Jamrich1.834590LSep 18 · 17:25J. Dvorak1.7311118113F. Marat2.00861171WSep 18 · 16:25F. Marat2.385121111113D. Tichy1.5311146432LSep 18 · 14:55R. Jamrich1.80111012143F. Marat1.9161210121LSep 17 · 14:40M. Filipek1.831111113F. Marat1.834990WSep 17 · 13:25L. Moravec1.4011451172F. Marat2.75811119113WSep 17 · 12:25F. Marat1.83128145123A. Kral1.8310111211102LSep 17 · 10:55M. Filipek2.00118119133F. Marat1.73711511112
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