TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Filip Marat vs Adam Kral 2-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 22Finished
Filip Marat
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1517511116119511
Adam Kral
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:30 and never touched — 54.5% is still 54.5%
Graded at full timeFilip Marat to win
54.5%
54.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingFilip Marat above · Adam Kral below
Set 1 · 15-17
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 5-11
Point 101 set 5, 5-11 — our read held Filip Marat at 54.5%
101 points played in total.
H2H Filip Marat 23–21 Adam Kral Adam Kral has won 21 of their 44 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:30What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Kral
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
23-21 in 44
Marat
Wrong
gap of 2 in 44, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Marat 1438 vs Kral 1480
Kral
Correct
both rated, 43 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Marat 40% vs Kral 20%
Marat
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Marat 40% vs Kral 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Marat +1 · Kral -3
Kral
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kral) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kral form (20%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMarat 1.91 / Kral 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Kral)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #13173286
Marat1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 4 days ago (Sep 18)
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog42% won 44 of 105
Down 0–1, comes back40% 25 of 63
Down 0–2, comes back25% 8 of 32
Kral1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite58% won 49 of 85
Up 2–0, closes it91% 19 of 21
Up 1–0, closes it71% 35 of 49
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMarat7wins
AwayKral3wins
5 of 10 to a deciderMarat leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMarat80%4 of 5
AwayKral40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Marat5Kral5n = 10split evenly
S2Marat5Kral5n = 10split evenly
S3Marat5Kral5n = 10split evenly
S4Marat6Kral4n = 10Marat took 6 of 10
S5Marat4Kral1n = 5Marat took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMaratKralM − KBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match45.342.5+2.8per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMaratKralBasisWin rate · lifetime236 / 530 vs 407 / 78044.5%52.2%236 / 530 vs 407 / 780Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.940.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KralMarat 1.91/Kral 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Kral · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kral won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 17 · 12:25F. Marat51128145123A. Kral5410111211102
LSep 14 · 09:25F. Marat319111101A. Kral4311911123
WJul 31 · 08:25F. Marat4011117113A. Kral27581131
WJul 30 · 08:55F. Marat549101311113A. Kral45111211652
LJul 5 · 22:00F. Marat361110961A. Kral4061211113
WJul 5 · 21:25F. Marat47951111113A. Kral4511116982
WJul 3 · 10:35F. Marat571191310143A. Kral526111112122
LJul 3 · 08:55F. Marat541013911112A. Kral521211115133
WJul 2 · 14:20F. Marat4291111113A. Kral33119761
WJun 27 · 11:25F. Marat4111127113A. Kral345101181
F. Marat10
LSep 22 · 12:25P. Chlumsky1.57111111153F. Marat2.256713131WSep 18 · 18:00F. Marat1.831111113R. Jamrich1.834590LSep 18 · 17:25J. Dvorak1.7311118113F. Marat2.00861171WSep 18 · 16:25F. Marat2.385121111113D. Tichy1.5311146432LSep 18 · 14:55R. Jamrich1.80111012143F. Marat1.9161210121LSep 17 · 14:40M. Filipek1.831111113F. Marat1.834990WSep 17 · 13:25L. Moravec1.4011451172F. Marat2.75811119113WSep 17 · 12:25F. Marat1.83128145123A. Kral1.8310111211102LSep 17 · 10:55M. Filipek2.00118119133F. Marat1.73711511112LSep 14 · 10:05F. Marat2.104780R. Muller1.651111113
A. Kral10
LSep 22 · 11:55L. Moravec2.75121011113A. Kral1.401012751LSep 21 · 14:15A. Kral1.911191161P. Chlumsky1.8051113113LSep 21 · 12:55A. Kral2.00971513102M. Filipek1.7311111311123LSep 21 · 11:55A. Kral1.5711911882F. Balcar2.25811811113WSep 21 · 10:55A. Kral2.0011811113P. Chlumsky1.73311881LSep 19 · 10:34J. Kulveit1.80116115113A. Kral1.9091171192WSep 19 · 09:25J. Dvorak1.7361161192A. Kral2.00116117113WSep 19 · 08:25A. Kral1.5711711123R. Jamrich2.259119101LSep 19 · 06:55J. Kulveit1.80117118113A. Kral1.9191191132LSep 17 · 12:25F. Marat1.83128145123A. Kral1.8310111211102
Upcoming Matches
F. Marat
Nothing scheduled
A. Kral
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