TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Tomas Liska vs Michal Makara 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 22Finished
Tomas Liska
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
8111012114911––
Michal Makara
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:29 and never touched — 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timeMichal Makara to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Liska above · Michal Makara below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 76 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Michal Makara at 54.1%
76 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Liska 47–50 Michal Makara Tomas Liska has won 47 of their 97 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:29What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Makara
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
47-50 in 97
Makara
Correct
gap of 3 in 97, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Liska 1661 vs Makara 1681
Makara
Correct
both rated, 21 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Liska 60% vs Makara 40%
Liska
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Liska 50% vs Makara 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Liska +2 · Makara -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Makara)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Makara form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLiska 2.00 / Makara 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Makara)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13172813
Liska2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog39% won 82 of 211
Down 0–1, comes back19% 23 of 123
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 53
Makara1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite56% won 43 of 77
Up 2–0, closes it92% 22 of 24
Up 1–0, closes it71% 30 of 42
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLiska5wins
AwayMakara5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLiska100%4 of 4
AwayMakara83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Liska4Makara6n = 10Makara took 6 of 10
S2Liska6Makara4n = 10Liska took 6 of 10
S3Liska7Makara3n = 10Liska took 7 of 10
S4Liska3Makara4n = 7Makara took 4 of 7
S5Liska2Makara3n = 5Makara took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricLiskaMakaraL − MBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match42.841.3+1.5per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLiskaMakaraBasisWin rate · lifetime399 / 867 vs 498 / 104846%47.5%399 / 867 vs 498 / 1048Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match40.339.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MakaraLiska 2.00/Makara 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.1%
Makara · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Makara won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 17 · 12:18T. Liska4341181192M. Makara47117117113
WSep 17 · 10:45T. Liska4011117113M. Makara30791131
WSep 13 · 11:45T. Liska381611113M. Makara3114890
WSep 8 · 10:00T. Liska351113113M. Makara2461170
WAug 29 · 09:30T. Liska561111149113M. Makara47313121182
LAug 20 · 09:30T. Liska51713111192M. Makara55111599113
LAug 15 · 15:45T. Liska491011117102M. Makara48125811123
LAug 8 · 17:15T. Liska359101151M. Makara4311129113
LAug 3 · 15:45T. Liska2814770M. Makara381611113
WAug 1 · 12:54T. Liska53815118113M. Makara50111371182
T. Liska10
WSep 22 · 10:15L. Adam1.73861151T. Liska2.0011116113WSep 22 · 09:45L. Rulc1.736980T. Liska2.001111113LSep 20 · 16:54L. Veigl1.73121397113T. Liska2.001011111182WSep 20 · 15:45T. Liska1.80117111363L. Veigl1.9141191552LSep 20 · 14:15L. Svoboda1.679111193T. Liska2.10117881LSep 20 · 13:45V. Burylov1.831111113T. Liska1.837590LSep 18 · 13:09T. Liska2.101071161L. Svoboda1.6712117113WSep 18 · 12:00V. Burylov1.83512117112T. Liska1.831110811133WSep 18 · 11:00L. Dobias1.5085111152T. Liska2.50111197113LSep 18 · 09:30L. Svoboda1.67111145113T. Liska2.1093111162
M. Makara10
LSep 22 · 10:45L. Rulc1.80111111113M. Makara1.91813941WSep 22 · 09:15L. Adam1.67117118102M. Makara2.10911911123WSep 20 · 12:14M. Makara2.0261111113O. Kaderabek1.70117371LSep 20 · 11:45R. Pisa1.671111113M. Makara2.106990LSep 20 · 10:45O. Kaderabek1.6751111123M. Makara2.101188101LSep 20 · 09:15M. Zelinka1.9131111113M. Makara1.80118911WSep 19 · 20:19M. Makara2.631113113L. Svoboda1.4431180LSep 19 · 19:45L. Veigl2.20811117123M. Makara1.61118211102WSep 19 · 18:45V. Burylov1.83118114102M. Makara1.83411711123LSep 19 · 17:15L. Svoboda1.53111112M. Makara2.389710
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