TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Lukas Rulc vs Michal Makara 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 22Finished
Lukas Rulc
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1181113119114––
Michal Makara
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:51 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeLukas Rulc to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLukas Rulc above · Michal Makara below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-4
Point 78 set 4, 11-4 — our read held Lukas Rulc at 54.0%
78 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Rulc 45–44 Michal Makara Michal Makara has won 44 of their 89 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:51What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Rulc
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
45-44 in 89
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rulc 1650 vs Makara 1695
Makara
Wrong
both rated, 44 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rulc 60% vs Makara 40%
Rulc
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rulc 60% vs Makara 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Rulc -1 · Makara +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Rulc)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Makara form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRulc 1.80 / Makara 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Rulc)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13172899
Rulc1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite56% won 89 of 159
Up 2–0, closes it85% 39 of 46
Up 1–0, closes it66% 61 of 93
Makara1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog45% won 154 of 340
Down 0–1, comes back26% 46 of 180
Down 0–2, comes back4% 3 of 85
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRulc5wins
AwayMakara5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRulc80%4 of 5
AwayMakara80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rulc5Makara5n = 10split evenly
S2Rulc3Makara7n = 10Makara took 7 of 10
S3Rulc5Makara5n = 10split evenly
S4Rulc4Makara5n = 9Makara took 5 of 9
S5Rulc3Makara1n = 4Rulc took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricRulcMakaraR − MBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match42.040.7+1.3per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRulcMakaraBasisWin rate · lifetime342 / 687 vs 498 / 104749.8%47.6%342 / 687 vs 498 / 1047Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.739.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RulcRulc 1.80/Makara 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Rulc · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Rulc won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 29 · 13:05L. Rulc32131090M. Makara381512113
WAug 29 · 12:00L. Rulc50118911113M. Makara4391111662
WAug 22 · 11:45L. Rulc46713411113M. Makara50111111982
WAug 14 · 12:44L. Rulc4314117113M. Makara371261181
LAug 14 · 09:15L. Rulc387912101M. Makara44111110123
WAug 10 · 05:15L. Rulc481111114113M. Makara3551311152
LAug 9 · 07:45L. Rulc381091181M. Makara4312119113
LAug 7 · 09:09L. Rulc4411117782M. Makara42361111113
LAug 7 · 07:00L. Rulc36991171M. Makara4211119113
WAug 2 · 12:14L. Rulc4511911143M. Makara331119121
L. Rulc10
LSep 22 · 11:15L. Adam1.73411711123L. Rulc2.00115117102LSep 22 · 09:45L. Rulc1.736980T. Liska2.001111113WSep 16 · 20:48L. Rulc2.00111011113S. Rejent1.73812671LSep 16 · 19:45S. Rejent2.1011118113L. Rulc1.67981191WSep 16 · 18:45O. Mezera3.506790L. Rulc1.281111113WSep 16 · 17:15J. Dufek2.00471181L. Rulc1.7311118113WSep 15 · 09:04R. Pisa1.8376100L. Rulc1.831111123LSep 15 · 07:30M. Ullman2.0015111011113L. Rulc1.7317812672WSep 15 · 07:00L. Rulc1.83111011113J. Senk1.83512651LSep 15 · 06:00L. Rulc1.9189120R. Pisa1.801111143
M. Makara10
WSep 22 · 09:15L. Adam1.67117118102M. Makara2.10911911123WSep 20 · 12:14M. Makara2.0261111113O. Kaderabek1.70117371LSep 20 · 11:45R. Pisa1.671111113M. Makara2.106990LSep 20 · 10:45O. Kaderabek1.6751111123M. Makara2.101188101LSep 20 · 09:15M. Zelinka1.9131111113M. Makara1.80118911WSep 19 · 20:19M. Makara2.631113113L. Svoboda1.4431180LSep 19 · 19:45L. Veigl2.20811117123M. Makara1.61118211102WSep 19 · 18:45V. Burylov1.83118114102M. Makara1.83411711123LSep 19 · 17:15L. Svoboda1.53111112M. Makara2.389710WSep 18 · 08:29M. Makara1.9111711123R. Pisa1.808118101
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