TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13136625
Played Sep 16Finished
Stepan Rejent
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
119118811119––
Lukas Rulc
Away
1.67
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:56 and never touched — 57.4% is still 57.4%
Graded at full timeLukas Rulc to win
57.4%
57.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingStepan Rejent above · Lukas Rulc below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 78 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Lukas Rulc at 57.4%
78 points played in total.
H2H Stepan Rejent 45–55 Lukas Rulc Stepan Rejent has won 45 of their 100 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:56What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Rulc
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
45-55 in 100
Rulc
Wrong
gap of 10 in 100, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rejent 1634 vs Rulc 1666
Rulc
Wrong
both rated, 33 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rejent 80% vs Rulc 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rejent 50% vs Rulc 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Rejent +4 · Rulc +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Rulc) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rulc form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRejent 2.10 / Rulc 1.67
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Rulc)+0.8pp
Setka Cup · #13136625
Rejent2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog41% won 85 of 209
Down 0–1, comes back25% 30 of 122
Down 0–2, comes back8% 5 of 65
Rulc1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite56% won 93 of 167
Up 2–0, closes it85% 39 of 46
Up 1–0, closes it66% 64 of 97
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRejent6wins
AwayRulc4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderRejent leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRejent100%5 of 5
AwayRulc80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rejent5Rulc5n = 10split evenly
S2Rejent7Rulc3n = 10Rejent took 7 of 10
S3Rejent5Rulc5n = 10split evenly
S4Rejent2Rulc5n = 7Rulc took 5 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricRejentRulcRejent − RulcBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match37.036.1+0.9per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRejentRulcBasisWin rate · lifetime366 / 780 vs 349 / 70246.9%49.7%366 / 780 vs 349 / 702Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.839.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RulcRejent 2.10/Rulc 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.6%
Rulc · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Rejent won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 9 · 18:15S. Rejent341112113L. Rulc2061040
WAug 2 · 20:43S. Rejent43121136113L. Rulc48107111192
LAug 2 · 18:15S. Rejent33991141L. Rulc3711114113
WAug 1 · 09:09S. Rejent3911611113L. Rulc32611871
LAug 1 · 06:00S. Rejent38121970L. Rulc461421113
LJul 26 · 16:54S. Rejent32811761L. Rulc4111811113
LJul 26 · 13:45S. Rejent358111061L. Rulc3811412113
WJul 5 · 20:43S. Rejent351111133L. Rulc2256110
WJul 5 · 18:15S. Rejent45111166113L. Rulc4689111172
WMay 14 · 13:30S. Rejent3621112113L. Rulc311151051
S. Rejent10
LSep 16 · 20:48L. Rulc2.00111011113S. Rejent1.73812671WSep 16 · 18:15J. Dufek1.838151151S. Rejent1.8311171113WSep 16 · 17:45O. Mezera2.207111071S. Rejent1.6111612113WSep 15 · 20:43S. Rejent1.831111123V. Grubr1.8385100WSep 15 · 19:45S. Rejent2.251111113J. Sr1.577980LSep 15 · 18:15J. Dolezal2.0041111113S. Rejent1.73117881LSep 15 · 17:45V. Grubr2.001111113S. Rejent1.735960LSep 14 · 16:15S. Rejent1.6181112772O. Mezera2.201191011113LSep 14 · 15:15O. Mezera2.25118511113S. Rejent1.5761111892WSep 14 · 14:45S. Rejent1.67131158113M. Makara2.10116111182
L. Rulc10
WSep 16 · 20:48L. Rulc2.00111011113S. Rejent1.73812671WSep 16 · 18:45O. Mezera3.506790L. Rulc1.281111113WSep 16 · 17:15J. Dufek2.00471181L. Rulc1.7311118113WSep 15 · 09:04R. Pisa1.8376100L. Rulc1.831111123LSep 15 · 07:30M. Ullman2.0015111011113L. Rulc1.7317812672WSep 15 · 07:00L. Rulc1.83111011113J. Senk1.83512651LSep 15 · 06:00L. Rulc1.9189120R. Pisa1.801111143WSep 14 · 08:23T. Liska2.107990L. Rulc1.671111113LSep 14 · 07:15L. Rulc1.7311510111T. Liska2.0071112133WSep 14 · 06:15L. Rulc2.2571111153L. Dobias1.571169131
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